Big-Money Bets in Vegas Moving Odds for Pacquiao-Thurman

In boxing, more times than not your name will carry you much farther than your game. Manny Pacquiao (61-7-2, 39 KO), still one of the biggest names in the sport despite being 40 years old, is probably the best example of this.

Pac-Man opened as a rare underdog +120 in his upcoming fight with WBA champion Keith Thurman (26-0, 22 KO) at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Thurman, who is 10 years younger than Pacquiao, was listed at -140 at open, a number that John Murray, director of race and sports operations, and other bookmakers thought was too low at the time.

It didn't take long for that to change. On June 23, the Westgate took a bet of $23,000 on Pacquiao at +105, still the largest wager they've taken on the fight thus far. Murray says that essentially made the action one-sided on Pac-Man and moved the fight to a pick'em.

Since then, there's been mostly Pacquiao support pushing the line even further in his direction. The rising number hasn't swayed many bettors in the other direction as the Westgate took a $4,000 bet for Pacquiao on Thursday at -160 odds. As of Thursday night, Pacquiao is a -165 favorite to win at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Looking at all the factors it's not hard to see why fans are flocking to bet on the Filipino. He has a massive following in two countries and he has somehow managed to defy Father Time to this point in his career despite being written off several times.

But the other big factor is recency bias. Thurman, who struggled with injuries had a total of four fights over the past four years and was inactive for all of 2018. In his return to the ring in January he struggled to defeat Josesito Lopez, who had Thurman dazed and confused in the seventh round. One week prior, Pacquiao absolutely demolished his Adrien Broner and looked like the Pac-Man of old.

Thurman told TMZ in the lead-up to the fight that he would be betting on himself to knock out Pacquiao (it would be his first KO since 2015) within three rounds.

At Wednesday's pre-fight press conference, he doubled-down on his promise, but noted that he wants to wait for the odds to move even more in his favor.

Per BoxingScene's Keith Idec:

“Well, to be honest, we were waiting because so many people are betting Pacquiao,” Thurman said following the press conference. “So, we’re waiting. We believe that the odds are gonna keep being not in my favor, which is gonna allow me to really maximize my bets. So, I went to the bank today. We got the money ready, but we haven’t gotten the ticket yet. Because, you know, they’re still gonna shift.”

Unfortunately for Thurman, his self-confidence has done very little in terms of generating betting tickets in his name at the Westgate (unless you count the $5K wager placed on the draw there).

Still, Thurman is right about one thing: all the money on Pacquiao is pushing his value up with the fight fast approaching.