Shawn Porter vs. Yordenis Ugas Betting Guide: Can Showtime Retain His Title?

Shawn Porter vs. Yordenis Ugas Betting Guide: Can Showtime Retain His Title? article feature image

Betting Odds: Shawn Porter vs. Yordenis Ugas

  • Shawn Porter odds: -350
  • Yordenis Ugas odds: +275
  • Over/Under: 9.5 rounds (-425/+325)
  • Location: Carson, Ca.
  • Time: Approx. 10:30 p.m. ET
  • Channel: FOX

Shawn Porter's first defense of his WBC welterweight title was nearly called off after he weighed-in over the 147-pound limit on Friday. But after a quick haircut, the champion will be in action on Saturday.

It took Porter (29-2-1) four years to climb to the top of the welterweight division and reclaim a share of the 147-pound world title, but he did so in impressive fashion when he defeated former two-division champion Danny Garcia by unanimous decision in September for his WBC belt.

Now he turns his attention to Cuban journeyman Yordenis Ugas for his first title defense since winning the belt. Ugas (23-3-0) is seeking to win a world title in his first career championship fight as a pro.

Here's a breakdown of the pending championship bout.



Ugas' Path to Victory

Ugas, like many Cuban-born fighters before him, had a successful career as an amateur boxer. He won a gold medal at the World Amateur Boxing Championships at 19 years old and a bronze medal as a lightweight in the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

That said, his career as a pro hasn't shown him the same level of success yet. Since Ugas suffered back-to-back losses in 2014, he has won eight consecutive fights to earn his way to a title shot.

While Ugas isn't considered a knockout puncher, four of those eight wins were by stoppage. The Cuban works behind a strong jab, but has sneaky power with his right hand. His most recent fight with a knockdown was against Ray Robinson where Ugas caught him with a strong right hook.

via Gfycat

Ugas is short on championship-level experience though. His last fight against Cesar Miguel Barrionuevo was a decisive, but the competition level left much to be desired.

Ugas was accurate, landing 34% of his total punches according to CompuBox numbers, but couldn't finish Barrionuevo late in the fight — his first to go 12 full rounds.

It remains to be seen if Ugas has the stamina to compete for the duration of a title fight, but his right hand could be an equalizer if he lands it at the right time.

Porter's Path to Victory

There's a lot to love about Porter. In an era where fighters seemingly duck and dodge competition for as long as, "Showtime" has been very vocal about wanting to face the best possible competition in the welterweight division.

Per Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports:

“I only have three targets and I don’t think it’s any surprise who they are,” Porter said. “[IBF champion] Errol Spence; [WBA champion] Keith Thurman; and [WBO champion] Manny Pacquiao. I’m not really looking beyond those three guys.”

Porter already faced Thurman, who gave the champion one of the two losses on his record in 2016. He's 6-2-1 against current or former world title holders, including his most recent win over Garcia.

But before Porter can unify any titles in the division he has to get past Ugas on Saturday.

The former high school football player has motor that runs constantly when he's in the ring, so much so that he looks like a running back trying to break through the line at times.

Porter is known for his bulldog style that puts a ton of pressure on his opponents. He likes to close the distance, often lunging and putting his head down when he's coming in.

via Gfycat

The upside for Porter is that he keeps his opponents off balance, but the downside is that he leaves himself open to power shots inside. In his fight with Garcia, Porter diversified his style a bit in the early rounds and increased his punching volume significantly based on his CompuBox numbers.

Porter Punches Thrown Per Round — Last Five Fights

  • vs. Garcia: 61.8
  • vs. Adrian Granados: 48.3
  • vs. Andre Berto: 49.7
  • vs. Thurman: 55.1
  • vs. Adrien Broner: 49.1

That increased activity and pressure could go a long way against Ugas who has fought beyond the 10th round just once in his career.

Prediction

The fact that Porter came in over the weight limit on Friday makes me slightly nervous especially considering it's his first title defense. Still, I believe in the talent, experience and grit that Showtime displays in the ring each time he fights.

Porter has a ways to go before he's a threat to the top fighters in the division — Spence and Crawford — but he is a champ for a reason. Ugas is a good fighter, but I don't think he's have enough to fend off Porter's bruising attack for 12 rounds.

That said, I don't see this fight ending early either. Porter's last stoppage win was nearly two years ago, so if he wins it will likely be by decision. Instead of taking Porter to win at -350, you get much better value betting him to win by decision.

The Pick: Porter by decision -125

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