Freedman’s Favorite Prop for the Players Championship: Will There Be a Hole in One?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have six NBA and three NHL games.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

270-236-12, +29.40 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 152-130-4, +13.75 Units
• NHL: 65-78-7, -6.66 Units
• Golf: 4-6-1, -1.35 Units
• NASCAR: 5-5-0. +1.30 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• NCAAB: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 23-2-0. +12.64 Units

Favorite Players Championship Prop: Will There Be a Hole in One?

• Yes: -140
• No: +110

The 2019 Players Championship tees off at TPC Sawgrass on Thursday (Mar. 14, 7: 40 a.m. ET). For the past 37 years the tournament has been played on the Stadium Course.

When evaluating head-to-head matchups, I use the FantasyLabs PGA Models, and there are some matchups I like, but the bet that really catches my eye this week is the hole-in-one prop.

It's not easy to find historical data for The Players, but my internet sleuthing indicates that there have been 36 aces at Stadium Course, which means that on average we've seen a little less than one ace per year at the Players. To be exact, 0.97 holes in one

But over the past 10 years I've been able to find just four aces. And two of them came in the same year (2013).

And it's not uncommon for aces to come in bunches, when perhaps course conditions are more conducive to holes in one.

For instance, in 1994 was saw two aces at holes Nos. 3 & 8. And in 2000, there were two aces at No. 8 and one ace on No. 17. And in 2006, there were FOUR aces at No. 13.

So it's not as if in a typical year at The Players we should expect to see one ace. The distribution is not nearly that even.

And it might be harder than usual for someone to get a hole in one this year. This tournament is usually in May, but this season it has been moved to March, which means the course could play very differently. Many golfers could be thrown off of their game.

And the 7,189-yard course isn't easy in general because of doglegs and water hazards.

As Josh Perry says in his Players Championship betting guide, this tournament always has the strongest field of the PGA Tour season, so it wouldn't be surprising for someone to get a hole in one.

But at +110 odds, there's a 47.6% implied probability of no hole in one at The Players, and I think the true odds are closer to 55%.

I'd bet on no hole in one down to +100.

The Pick: No (+110)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.