Sobel’s Valspar Championship Preview: Looking for Clues to the Upcoming Masters

Sobel’s Valspar Championship Preview: Looking for Clues to the Upcoming Masters article feature image
Credit:

John David Mercer, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jim Furyk

  • Dustin Johnson (+550) is a the favorite to win the 2019 Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course in Florida.
  • After Johnson, Jon Rahm (+1000), Jason Day (+1000), Sergio Garcia (+1600) and Webb Simpson (+1800) are the only golfers with odds under 20-1.
  • Jason Sobel analyzes the field and gives his preview for the tournament.

PALM HARBOR, Fla. — Of the 28 players in this week’s Valspar Championship field who are already qualified for the upcoming Masters Tournament, none will admit they’re looking ahead. Not a single one will publicly tell us that he’s looking straight past this week’s festivities in Tampa, not to mention the WGC-Dell Match Play and Valero Texas Open, and starting to focus on the year’s first major already.

That’s our job.

We can be excused for spending the next three weeks crossing out days on our calendar like a kid biding time until summer vacation.

With his Players Championship victory on Sunday, Rory McIlroy established himself as the favorite for this year’s Masters, with about two dozen other elite players all charging toward the first major firing on at least some of the proverbial cylinders, if not all of ‘em.

I’m not sure this week’s Valspar can match the intensity and entertainment of last year, when Paul Casey came from behind to win for the first time in a zillion years, by a stroke over Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed – one of whom asserted himself that week as an elite player once again, while the other was on the verge of a Masters title run.

Hopefully, we’ll receive some more Masters clues this week from those 28 players who absolutely, positively aren’t looking ahead even a little bit.

Because, of course, we’ll be doing that for them.

Let’s get to the picks for this week, which include a handful of guys fresh off strong finishes at The Players last week.

The Favorites

Dustin Johnson (+550)

Why DJ? Why here, where he owns no discernible record? Because he’s made a habit over the years of showing up at an event he doesn’t usually play, getting overlooked as one of the tourney favorites, then blitzing the field and making it look easy.

Johnson’s two prior starts here came in 2008 and ’10, and he missed the cut each time. That could be enough to keep him off some radars, but we shouldn’t overlook the fave this week, although as I often warn: You’d better really like a guy to take him at +550.

Jon Rahm (+1100)

Yeah, yeah, another big name. I could see Rahm either going into robo-golf mode and winning by a half-dozen shots or just going through the motions before a few big weeks.

At this price, you’d better be sure you like the former, not the latter, but only one result outside the top-12 over the past four months should bode well for those chances.

Sergio Garcia (+1600)

Back in 2013, Garcia finished seventh here, then decided to skip the event for the next four years. Last year, he returned and finished fourth.

Couple that with the fact that he owns four top-10s in his last six worldwide starts – well, the last six starts that he finished and wasn’t DQ’d for ripping up the greens – and he’s trending in all the right directions.

Kevin Kisner
Kevin Kisner has put together a string of good results. Credit: John David Mercer, USA Today Sports.

Mid-Tier

Jim Furyk (+3300)

While I think he’ll be simultaneously gassed after last week’s title contention and heavily owned in DFS, Furyk’s place as third on the all-time Valspar money list makes me believe he could chase that runner-up with another top-10.

At 48, he won’t have many more chances to contend, so he’ll need to strike while those irons are still hot. Even so, this price dropped way too much for my liking.

Jason Kokrak (+4500)

This dude keeps plugging away, playing well seemingly every week. Even if he doesn’t claim his first win soon, he’s a safe pick for DFS lineups and matchups bets because of his increasingly impressive consistency.

Kevin Kisner (+4500)

Last five starts, from oldest to most recent: 26-28-27-23-22. Which means Kiz is verrry slowwwly trending in the right direction.

Really, though, he’s playing some solid golf right now and just needs to eliminate a few mistakes for a much bigger result.

Brandt Snedeker (+4500)

Following a two-year absence from this event, he returned last year and finished T-31. That doesn’t sound too special until we recall that he posted a final-round 78.

A closing 69 would’ve gotten him into a playoff with Paul Casey; even just a 70 would’ve cemented a share of second place. I like taking guys who have had outlier rounds to impact their results – think Tommy Fleetwood at the recent API, where he posted one high score for a third straight year, but still finished T-3 – and Sneds’ result of T-5 on Sunday could portend big things to come.

Sungjae Im (+5000)

Another week, another Im play. He’s the real deal and following last week’s MC, should be back on track for another solid result.

Russell Henley
Russell Henley could be a longshot worth a flier this weekend. Credit: Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports.

Longshots

Russell Henley (+9000)

Henley is one of those guys I can never get a great read on. He’s a streaky putter who can seemingly get hot out of nowhere, but is always tough to judge, as his three career wins have come in a season-opener, after a T-45 and after an MC.

Based on a T-9 in Tampa two years ago and a T-20 at the Honda two starts ago, I’m willing to give him a shot this week.

Joaquin Niemann (+12500)

Last year, when Niemann was still the bright-new-shiny-toy on the PGA Tour, he was asked what type of course he likes the most – and what should suit his game the best. “Back in Chile,” he said, “it's more like more tree-lined courses and really short courses; you could always have driver and wedges.”

At just over 7,200 yards, this track could fit the bill. It’s been a disappointing season so far for the young Chilean, but that just means we can get him at a nice price before he starts going low.

Nick Taylor (+12500)

Much like the snowbirds who migrate from Canada to Florida during the winter months, Canadian golfers have enjoyed the conditions at Innisbrook over the past few years.

Adam Hadwin won the tourney two years ago and Corey Conners seriously contended last year. This year’s pick from north of the border is Taylor, who is trending in the right direction after a T-16 at The Players last week. Afterward, he told Bob Weeks of TSN that it was his best ball-striking performance of the year, which should bode well for a ball-striker’s track like this one, too.

Akshay Bhatia (+40000)

Some of you are probably thinking: “Uh… who???” Bhatia is the real deal, a 17-year-old who is ranked ninth in the World Amateur Golf Ranking, has won four WAGR-sanctioned events in the past year and will reportedly forego college to turn professional soon.

As I wrote about Viktor Hovland two weeks ago, it’s fun to win money on players who can’t earn any themselves. I like Bhatia to make a serious run at a top-20 result this week.

My Favorite Bet

Kevin Kisner/Brandt Snedeker/Jason Kokrak: Top-5 Finish (+1000)

This week’s favorite bet is really three bets and I’m just hoping one of ‘em pays off — anything else is gravy.

I really like the mid-tier plays of Kisner, Snedeker and Kokrak this week. Not sure they’ll each contend for the title, but I do think at least one of them will be up there.

Since we can get each of these three at +1000 for a top-five finish, the bet is to place one unit apiece. Quick math tells us that if just one of them cashes, it’s still a pretty nice profit.

And if more than one does? Well, like I said: It’s just gravy.

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