Sobel’s Players Championship Final Round Matchup Bets: A Day for ‘Dogs

Great course, great leaderboard and what should be a great final round at The Players Championship.

Expect similar conditions to Saturday’s round, which yielded plenty of leaderboard movement throughout the day. Anything can happen, which might be the reason why my three favorite matchup bets are all on notable 'dogs.

Jason Day over Rory McIlroy (+105)

12:25 p.m. ET

While it’s tough to predict a winner entering this final round, I love the +950 value of Day, who starts just three strokes back. This particular matchup bet is your chance to fade McIlroy in the final round, as his season-long Sunday scoring average remains three strokes higher than his overall number. At some point, the law of averages suggests Rory will put everything together on a Sunday afternoon, but I’m not sure today will be that day.

Brian Harman over Dustin Johnson (+210)

11:55 a.m. ET

On a wet, windy day, accuracy might be more crucial than power, which could level the playing field to negate Johnson’s advantage over Harman. Don’t get me wrong: It’s not that I hate DJ in this matchup; I just like the big number attached to the little lefty. He could thrive in a David/Goliath situation like this one.

Eddie Pepperell over Justin Rose (+180)

11:15 a.m. ET

Another case of chasing the value. Though Rose has appeared to get his game sorted out in the past few days, he’s not too far removed from a few curiously high scores. Meanwhile, the conditions should be favorable for Pepperell, who posted a nice round yesterday (4-under 68). I like the strategy of taking both him and Harman today, then hoping at least one of 'em pulls off the upset, if not both.