MLB Expert Predictions for Monday Night: 6 Favorite Bets, Featuring Dodgers-Diamondbacks
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zack Greinke
- We've got seven MLB games on tap for Monday evening.
- Our MLB experts examine their six favorite bets of the night, including Dodgers at Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET).
Collin Wilson: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: Dodgers -133
- Home Moneyline: Diamondbacks +123
- Over/Under: 8.5
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Chase Field will be the site for the best pitching matchup of the night with the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw and the Diamondbacks' Zack Greinke.
Kershaw has some of his worst career splits in Chase Field, with an ERA of 3.70 and 1.20 WHIP. The former Cy Young winner has been served eight career losses in 15 starts during his years visiting Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are one of the best teams in hitting lefties. Arizona is top five in the league against southpaws in wRC+, wOBA and ISO. On top of the excellent advanced splits, Arizona hitters are bottom five in strikeout percentage against lefties.
Greinke may be coming at a discount because of Kershaw’s recent gems against the San Francisco Giants, who are dead last in many advanced stats against lefties.
The Pick: Diamondbacks (+123)
Danny Donahue: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Jon Gray (7-5, 4.18 ERA) vs. Drew Pomeranz (2-7, 7.09 ERA)
- Rockies Moneyline: -114
- Giants Moneyline: +104
- Over/Under: 7.5
- First pitch: 10:05 p.m. ET
In these near toss-up games, I tend to look for what seems to be the comfortable choice — if there is one — and go against it. Betting on Drew Pomeranz feels very uncomfortable, so the Giants are off to a nice start for me.
The Rockies were a playoff team a year ago — the Giants were definitely not. The Rockies are in second place in the NL West at 40-37 … and the Giants are dead last (33-43).
Despite all of that, this game continues to move closer and closer to a true coin flip in the betting market (Colorado opened around -140). If the Rockies were really the play in this game, wouldn’t every bettor be a millionaire by now (or at least the 76% that are making a Rockies bet tonight)?
The point is that oddsmakers know all of the basic stats and playoff histories of these teams that many casual bettors are going to use as the basis for their decisions. They aren’t making the Rockies’ price cheaper just to be nice.
I’ll be holding my breath and following the sharp action in a game that I have absolutely no plans to watch.
The Pick: Giants (+104)
Evan Abrams: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: Dodgers -133
- Home Moneyline: Diamondbacks +123
- Over/Under: 8.5
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Tonight we have a matchup of former Cy Young Award winners in Arizona between Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Both pitchers have been fantastic this season, sporting ERAs below 3 and their teams are a combined 21-6 when they start this year.
For my bet, I am going to focus on the first five innings and look at the Diamondbacks.
Over the last decade, Greinke has been one of the best first five-innings pitchers, with his teams going 102-44-26 (69.9%) on the first-five innings moneyline. That's a profit of $1,825 on a $100 per game basis, making Greinke the fourth-most profitable pitcher in baseball in this spot.
Since joining Arizona in 2016, Grienke’s major trouble innings have come basically in the fourth inning and later, with really just the fourth inning specifically (4.15 ERA) being his pain point.
The Dodgers have won six straight and went 9-2 on their 11-game homestand, with tonight’s game in Arizona being their first road game since June 11.
When a team is coming off at least a 10-game homestand, it is 22-27-12 (44.9%) on the first five-innings moneyline on the road when it has a win pct of 60% or higher, like the Dodgers. With such a small sample size, the margin is what caught my eye, losing by 0.6 runs per game.
The Pick: Diamondbacks +0.5 First Five Innings (-110)
Josh Appelbaum: Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: Braves +118
- Home Moneyline: Cubs -131
- Over/Under: 11.5
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
This is a tough one for the public. On one hand, they love betting favorites and home teams like the Cubs, but they also see a red-hot Atlanta team with a better record getting juicy plus-money as a rare road dog.
Not the sharps. They’ve taken a clear position.
The Cubs opened as short -115 home favorites and have moved all the way to -132 despite receiving slightly more than half the bets (54%). In a vacuum, a line should move only a few cents if the tickets are split.
This big move was caused by sharps hitting the Cubbies.
Chicago is getting only 54% of bets but 76% of dollars, signaling smart money from respected pro bettors in its favor. We’ve also seen a pair of steam moves hammer the Cubbies at -118 and -120.
The Cubs have also been the third-most profitable home team this season (27-14, +6.48 units, 15.8% ROI) and second-most profitable team when listed as favorites (33-17, +7.57 units, 15.1% ROI).
The Pick: Cubs (-131)
Sean Zerillo: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: Dodgers -133
- Home Moneyline: Diamondbacks +123
- Over/Under: 8.0
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Dating back to 2008, Arizona is 13-18 (+$95, 1.9% ROI) overall against Clayton Kershaw on the moneyline, but it is 9-7 at home (+$541, 33.8% ROI).
Zack Greinke is having his best season in Arizona, with a 2.91 ERA and a .285 xwOBA allowed, surpassing his 2018 (.303 xwOBA) and 2017 (.295 xwOBA) seasons.
After a rough first season in the desert in 2016, Greinke is 29-13 (69%, +723, 17.2%) since, and 5-0 (+$555, 111% ROI) as a home underdog.
I’ll look for him to extend that streak in this divisional matchup.
The Pick: Diamondbacks (+123)
PJ Walsh: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Aaron Sanchez (3-9, 5.49 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-4, 4.14 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: +215
- Home Moneyline: -250
- Over/Under: 10.5
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
While today certainly isn’t the most exciting of sports days, I still took a minute to check out Bet Labs’ Pro System matches and quickly found two interesting angles backing Toronto as a huge moneyline dog against the Yanks this evening.
The Jays fit Bet Labs’ Betting Against the Public Pro System, which keys in on dogs receiving less than 30% of bets — Toronto is currently garnering 25% — in divisional matchups.
This system has produced a profit of nearly 167 units and a return on investment of 9.9% since the start of the 2005 MLB season.
Toronto also fits another winning Pro System, which is available to all current Bet Labs subscribers.
The Pick: Blue Jays (+215)
Picks Summary
Wilson: Diamondbacks (+123)
Donahue: Giants (+104)
Abrams: Diamondbacks +0.5 F5 Innings (-110)
Appelbaum: Cubs (-131)
Zerillo: Diamondbacks (+123)
Walsh: Blue Jays (+215)
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