Freedman: Bet on Martin Truex Jr. at Coca-Cola 600

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces highlighting props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at my favorite driver matchup for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (6:00 p.m. ET, FOX).

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2019 Year-to-Date Record

835-616-43, +131.89 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 408-304-7, +49.86 Units
• NHL: 128-110-9, +19.32 Units
• MLB: 49-55-13, -11.19 Units
• Golf: 9-12-2, -0.70 Units
• NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
• NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
• Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units

Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway: Kyle Busch vs. Martin Truex Jr.

• Kyle Busch: -165
• Martin Truex Jr.: +135

This piece is going to be fast, because I have food to eat and alcohol to drink. (And presumably NFL player projections to create.)

If you want deeper analysis of the Coca-Cola 600 — which is the longest race of the NASCAR series and one of the best events of the racing year — check our Nick Giffen's pieces on the best bets to win the race and the most advantageous head-to-head matchups.

Busch has been the best driver in NASCAR since last season, and he won this very race last year. He leads all drivers this season with his 112.6 driver rating.

And in final practice, Busch had the top 10-lap average.

But Truex is maybe a top-three and certainly a top-five driver. Since switching from Chevy to Toyota in 2016, Truex has enjoyed as much success as anyone, especially at 1.5-mile ovals, which means that this track is right in his wheelhouse: Charlotte is the definitive 1.5-mile quad oval.

As good as Busch is, Truex has the better history at Charlotte over the past three years.

• 2018: Spring – 2 vs. 1; Fall – 14 vs. 32
• 2017: Spring – 3 vs. 2; Fall – 1 vs. 29
• 2016: Spring – 1 vs. 33; Fall – 13 vs. 6

Truex has finished in the top three in this race three years in a row and has been the more consistent driver at this track. At his best, Busch has been just as good as Truex, but he's also had three finishes outside the top 25.

Busch started the season on fire, winning three of the first eight races, but he hasn't placed in the top five in the past four — two of which Truex won.

Busch should be favored in this matchup, but NASCAR is a chaos-fueled sport, and +135 just seems too generous for a strong driver in good form with a history of success at 1.5-mile ovals and Charlotte in general and the Coca-Cola 600 in particular.

I'd bet on Truex down to +120.

The Pick: Truex +135

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.