NASCAR GoBowling at The Glen Matchup Odds, Picks: Hendrick Drivers Face Off

Today's race at Watkins Glen International is scheduled for 90 laps at the 2.45-mile road course. Road course racing typically features plenty of randomness that bettors can use to their advantage.

Overconfidence in the market, either by the betting public or by the bookmakers setting initial odds can lead to plenty of underdog value, especially outside of the favorites where strategy and luck can play a larger role.

At Watkins Glen, track history is extremely important when assessing driver performance. In addition, practice times, overall road course history and year-to-date driver rating also factor into my statistical model.

I've highlighted one head-to-head bet between mid-pack teammates in which the underdog is a solid value play. I'll post more props after inspection is complete. By that time, we'll be able to sort out the favorites, and more books will have posted lines as well, allowing bettors to shop around.

Alex Bowman +130 over Jimmie Johnson

My model gives Bowman and Johnson nearly identical median finishes, yet bookmakers have Bowman as a moderate underdog. Johnson and Bowman have faced off in four road course races as Hendrick Motorsports teammates, with Bowman winning the first three matchups, including last year's race at the Glen.

Bowman and Johnson were nearly inseparable in practice times in Happy Hour. Bowman eked out extremely small margins in both five- and 10-lap averages, but that's the suggestion of a matchup that is even, not one where Johnson should be a moderate favorite.

Between their past head-to-head matchups at road courses and practice times, Bowman is a clear value play. I'd bet him down to +110.

Sunday Updates

Inspection is complete, and all cars passed inspection. Ryan Blaney will start from the rear, however, for an unapproved adjustment. Here are two more head-to-head matchups I like in light of this morning's news.

• Brad Keselowski (-145) over Ryan Blaney
• Chase Elliott (+160) over Martin Truex Jr.