Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet (Jan. 18): Will Blake Griffin Grab 8 Rebounds?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.

For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

11-9-2, +9.42 Units

• Golf: 2-1-0, +1.30 Units
• NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
• NBA: 3-2-0, +0.82 Units
• NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Prop Bet for Friday, Jan. 18: Blake Griffin over/under 7.5 rebounds

• Over: -110
• Under: -120

This is a bonus pick for today, in addition to Anders Lee vs. Josh Bailey.

For my 2019 NBA props, I'm 0-2 on Andre Drummond and 3-0 on every other player. Let's keep the non-Drummond streak going by focusing on one of his teammates.

Tonight's NBA action tips off with the Pistons-Heat game (7 p.m. ET), and Detroit power forward Blake Griffin's rebounding prop has caught my eye.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Griffin projected for 9.0 rebounds, so he provides significant value at his current odds.

He's averaged just 7.5 rebounds across his 66 games with the Pistons, and over his past five starts he's massively underwhelmed with 3.6 rebounds per game, so the over isn't an obvious bet.

But Griffin has a favorable matchup against Heat power forward James Johnson, and this season the Heat have allowed the sixth-most rebounds to opposing power forwards (11.1 per game).

In the FantasyLabs NBA Models, we're projecting Griffin to lead the Pistons in playing time with 36 minutes, so he should have plenty of rebounding opportunities.

This line is available at MyBookie. At 7.5, I’d bet it to -140. At -110, I’d bet it to 8.0.

The Pick: Over (-110)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.