College Football Win Totals That Have Moved the Most: Market Love for Syracuse Knows No Bounds

The college football win total market in the United States has always originated in Las Vegas, but this year, FanDuel wanted to take a stab at it.

The market leader in New Jersey was first to post win totals for every FBS team (minus Rutgers, due to state law).

So how has the market moved as a result, and which teams do bettors really like? Let's dive in.

Full List of CFB Win Totals

Who the Market Likes

More than six weeks after the lines have been released, we can say that the betting market, not oddsmakers, have shaped these numbers.

FanDuel opened with $500 limits and some win totals moved quickly.

"We will always respect the money on clients who have also done their homework," a spokesperson for FanDuel said.

The biggest mover is Syracuse, which went from 5 wins to 7.5.

Our projections call for 7.32 wins for the Orange, and Collin Wilson was all over this win total when it was still at 5 and 5.5 earlier this summer. However, they'll be a favorite of more than a touchdown in only 3-4 games.

Army plays 13 regular season games this season and could be favored in all but one of them.

The rest of the list includes some trendy "breakout" candidates, like Virginia, Minnesota and Cincinnati.

FanDuel said that while they haven't moved these teams other than the juice, they've each seen some sharp action.

"Two interesting teams which took decent money were Michigan State over 7.5 and Kentucky over 6.5. The latter certainly more interesting given you expect UK to take a step back from last season," a spokesperson said. "Their non-conference schedule sees them as double-digit favorites in all four games but in SEC play, their schedule is brutal and will only be 9-point favorites to Arkansas.

"From the group of 5, Marshall overs has been a surprise bet too in a competitive CUSA."

Who the Market Dislikes

The market is especially bearish on UMass, which has a new head coach and one of the worst defenses in the country. Its win total dropped from 4.5 to 2.5.

However, the Minutemen should be favored in three games — Southern Illinois, Akron and UConn — if you're brave and went to go against the market movement.

Teams Still on the Move

Low-limit markets often get hit right away, and start to stabilize as more people bet into them.

So we haven't seen much movement in the last few weeks on FanDuel's win totals, with the exception of these teams:

• Baylor (7 to 7.5)
• Texas (under 9.5 from -160 to -140)
• Stanford (over 6.5 from -115 to -140)
• Cincinnati (over 7.5 from +120 to -110)

The Texas love is starting to die down a bit, with FanDuel taking plenty of under money at 9.5 in August.

Overall Trends and Takeaways

1. In other win total markets, like the NFL, there are more wins on the board than there are actual games because bettors tend to favor overs. There are 256 games played in an NFL season, and CG Technology in Nevada opened with 259 wins in its win total market.

FanDuel said it's received balanced action on both overs and unders on its college win totals, and the movement reflects that — they've added 18 wins and taken away 18 wins.

It can be tricky to track all the movement, because not every win is available given that many teams play FCS opponents, which don't have win totals offered. Not every win is available on the board.

2. The AAC has seen the most movement of any conference. The league has three teams that have dropped by at least one win (South Florida, Houston and Navy) and three that have increased by at least .5 wins (Memphis, Cincinnati and East Carolina).

3. Eight of the 24 win totals to fall at FanDuel either crossed, were touching, or are now touching the key number of 6.

Why is this important? Because teams want to get to 6 wins to get bowl eligible, and their schedules are in part designed to accommodate that.

For example, South Carolina has a brutally tough schedule, and its win total has dropped from 6 to 5.5 as a result. However, the Gamecocks have won fewer than six games just once since 2005.