Sunday Night Football Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Are the Rams Undervalued Against the Seahawks?

Sunday Night Football Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Seahawks vs. Rams

• Odds: Rams -1
• Over/Under: 48
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The majority of public bettors are backing the Seattle Seahawks against the Los Angeles Rams with 65% of tickets coming in on Russell Wilson and Co.

But is the betting value with the home underdogs?

Our experts preview this NFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football, featuring analysis of the biggest matchups as well as picks.

Sunday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Rams (slightly)

The Rams have already ruled out Gerald Everett (knee), leaving Tyler Higbee as the featured tight end. Offensive lineman Rob Havenstein (knee) is also listed as doubtful, so it's unlikely he plays.

The Seahawks will likely be without linebacker Mychal Kendricks (hamstring), who is listed as doubtful. Two more injuries to monitor are defensive ends Ziggy Ansah (neck) and Jadeveon Clowney (core), both listed as questionable. Clowney practiced in full on Friday, so it seems he's trending more toward probable than questionable. — Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Aaron Donald vs. Seahawks Interior Offensive Line

Donald, the reigning back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year, is having another stellar season. He's piled up 9.5 sacks and a league-leading 17 tackles for loss en route to the No. 1 overall ranking among interior defensive lineman in Pro Football Focus grades.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, don't feature even one above-average player along their interior O-line. Joey Hunt, who is filling in for the injured Justin Britt, ranks 35th among centers in PFF’s grades while guards Mike Iupati and D.J. Fluker rank 42nd and 50th, respectively, at the position.

Counterintuitively, though, it's mismatches in favor of the opponent like this that keep Seahawks spreads in check and allow Russell Wilson and Co. to keep defying the odds in tough spots. Per our Bet Labs data, Wilson is 16-6-2 against the spread as a road underdog. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Pick'em
• Projected Total: 47.5

This matchup is giving me a bit of deja vu of the Week 12 matchup between the Ravens and Rams. I bit on the Rams +3.5 at home and could tell about two minutes into the game that it was a loser.

There’s no reason to @ me on Twitter that the Rams are overrated and their offensive line stinks — trust me, I’m well aware of that. But the Rams will win this game if they can give Jared Goff a clean pocket. The Seahawks have the fourth-worst pressure rate at 20.2%, so I think there’s a chance Goff will have the time to operate.

The Rams also have a +3.1 edge in Pythagorean expected record differential over the Seahawks. A lot of that has to do with the Seahawks being 8-1 in one-score games this season, and while you can certainly make a case that Wilson playing at an MVP caliber is the reason for that, that type of record in close games involves quite a bit of luck.

Pythagorean wins can really help expose scenarios in which our collective perception of a team can be skewed based solely on to-date results. I bet on that here, taking the Rams +1 (still available at some books).— Sean Koerner

Koerner is 134-92-2 (59.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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PRO System Match

Since 2003, the under is 831-738-29 (53.0%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it's been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Bettors following this Pro System have gone 186-112-3 (62.4%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,481 following this strategy.

A majority of tickets are on the over (see live public betting data here), but history suggests the smart play is the under.— John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Rams +1

The 10-2 Seahawks head to Los Angeles to take on the 7-5 Rams, but Seattle has one of the most misleading records in the NFL.

Pete Carroll's bunch has a perfect 5-0 record in games decided by four or fewer points, and nine of their 10 wins have come by one possession. In fact, they're the first team in NFL history to have 10 wins in their first 12 games with an average scoring margin on three or fewer points.

Wilson has been nothing short of spectacular, but the Seahawks could easily be 7-5. Just take a look at their first meeting in Seattle, when the Seahawks only won after coming back to take a late one-point lead made possible by the usually-reliable Greg Zuerlein missing a 44-yard field goal in the final seconds.

The Rams finished with a total of 477 yards at a clip of 7.1 yards per play compared to the Seahawks' 6.4 in that game. That should sound familiar as the Seahawks are a very mediocre +0.2 in terms of net yards per play on the season — 14th in the NFL. Conversely, the Rams rank third overall at +0.8.

That 29-point outing by the Rams offense was actually the fewest points they've scored in the past four meetings against their division rivals. They've put up an average of 34.75 points in those meetings, which all would've been wins if Zuerlein connected on that field goal.

This is a good matchup scheme wise for what Sean McVay wants to do on offense. And not only is it a favorable matchup on the back end, but Seattle doesn’t generate a ton of pressure (30th in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders), which is how you throw Goff completely off of his game.

Why has Seattle been so fortunate?

Well, Wilson deserves some credit for his late-game heroics, but they're also running very well when it comes to turnovers — their 16 takeaways via fumble recovery leads the NFL — and opponent injuries. They’ve faced a number of backup quarterbacks and have benefited from a number of other key injuries. Just look at the past two weeks: The Eagles lost some key members of its offensive line and had their entire receiving corps out, and the Vikings not only didn’t have Adam Thielen, but lost star running back Dalvin Cook and their starting tackle mid-game.

The Seahawks are a good, playoff-worthy team, but they aren't as good as their 10-2 record indicates, which is why there's value on this line against a Rams team that seemingly saved their season last week in Arizona.

I already mentioned the plus matchup for the Rams offense. And while Wilson will undoubtedly make his fair share of plays, their run defense should slow the Seahawks' rushing attack. Los Angeles ranks third in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA and is holding opponents to 3.7 yards per rush (third in NFL).

I also give the nod to the Rams in special teams. Maybe the Seahawks magic continues. but I'm willing to put my money up here that it doesn't.

This number is just too good to pass up for a Rams team that will be looking to save its season with an extra day of prep and revenge on the mind. The two matchups to watch are Donald — who should be able to blow up the pocket against a very vulnerable Seahawks interior (specifically at center with Joey Hunt) — and Cooper Kupp in the slot. Both should have big days.

Stuckey is 296-234-7 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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