Ducks-Wild Preview: Will Anaheim Win Its First Game in 2019?

Ducks-Wild Preview: Will Anaheim Win Its First Game in 2019? article feature image
Credit:

Candice Ward, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Getzlaf, Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell

Betting odds: Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild

  • Ducks moneyline: +155
  • Wild moneyline: -180
  • Over/Under: 5.5
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET

NHL Record: 31-35, +7.32 units


>> All odds as of 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


The Anaheim Ducks haven't won a game this year. I mean that, literally, as the Ducks are in the midst of a 12-game losing streak (which includes four overtime losses). In fact, their last win came exactly one month ago on Dec. 17, 2018.

Astonishingly, Anaheim has hung in the playoff picture in the Western Conference despite this horrendous run.

The Wild are currently in a playoff position, sitting on 49 points by way of a 23-20-3 record. Minnesota's strength, as we noted Tuesday, is its sturdy defense.

The Wild allow 2.02 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5v5 (xGA/60), which is the best mark in the NHL by a wide margin. They also boast the highest expected save percentage on unblocked shots and allow the least amount of high-danger scoring chances per 60 in the circuit.

Anaheim's strength is also its defense, but when I say defense I really mean its goalie, John Gibson. Gibson's level has dropped a bit lately, but he's still the best goaltender in the NHL and gives the Ducks a puncher's chance every time they step out onto the ice.

The Ducks should count their lucky stars they have Gibson, too, because Randy Carlyle's squad allows 2.87 xGA/60 (30th), 12.96 high-danger chances against (30th) and 60.63 shot attempts against per 60 (29th). The Ducks don't make life easy on John Gibson, but John Gibson makes pretty easy on the Ducks.

Luckily, Anaheim's habit of getting shelled on a nightly basis shouldn't be a huge issue against the Wild. Minnesota isn't a prolific offensive team, averaging 2.39 xGF/60 and 55.64 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The Wild do create a decent amount of high-danger scoring chances, but that's where we'll lean on Gibson to hopefully be on his game.



At the other end of the ice will be Alex Stalock, the Wild's No. 2 goaltender. Minnesota always makes life easy on goaltenders, hence the high expected save percentage, but Stalock isn't anything above a replacement-level goaltender. The 31-year-old is ranked as the No. 63 goalie in the league by Corsica.

Even though Minnesota is the better team and is at home, this number is a little too high. The Wild are playing their third game in four nights and this matchup shouldn't have the Ducks chasing the game.

I also am happy that the Ducks called up Troy Terry from the AHL. Terry is a creative offensive player and should give Anaheim, who will be without Ryan Kesler, some much-needed pizzazz up front.

Also, and not that it has an impact on the betting for this game, these two teams made a trade last night with Anaheim sending forward Pontus Aberg to the Wild for Justin Kloos. Fun!

Anyways, Anaheim's current losing streak is likely skewing this number a little bit as the current odds suggest the Ducks have a 37.9% of winning this game after removing the vigorish.

That underrates Anaheim Thursday night and I'd suggest playing them at any number above +135.

The Bet: Anaheim Ducks +155

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