Coyotes at Blues Betting Odds, Picks: What’s Going on with St. Louis?

Coyotes at Blues Betting Odds, Picks: What’s Going on with St. Louis? article feature image
Credit:

Matt Kartozian, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Darcy Kuemper

Arizona Coyotes at St. Louis Blues Odds

  • Coyotes odds: +140
  • Blues odds: -160
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

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This is not a great schedule spot for the Arizona Coyotes. Not only did the 'Yotes play last night in D.C., but they are also playing their sixth game in nine nights against a rested team.

The good news for Arizona is that its opponent on Tuesday night, the St. Louis Blues, don't look like they have found their game yet.

That may be a weird thing to say about a team that is 12-3-3 and happens to be the defending champions. But a look under the hood reveals some serious cracks in the Blues' system.

St. Louis ranks 29th in the NHL in expected goals (xG) at 44.3%. The Blues' offense has been the main culprit for their poor advanced metrics. St. Louis ranks 30th in both expected goals for (1.81) and high-danger scoring chances (7.7) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Only two teams in the league take fewer shot attempts at 5-on-5 than St. Louis. It's ugly up front and the team will be without Vladimir Tarasenko for quite some time.

Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Despite their under-the-hood struggles, the Blues have the third-best points percentage in the NHL at 75%. That must mean Craig Berube's defense is doing the heavy lifting, right? Sort of.

St. Louis had one of the best defenses in the NHL last season, but things haven't been quite as impressive thorough the first five weeks in 2019-20. The Blues allow the eighth-most high-danger chances and 12th-most expected goals against per hour in the circuit.

So how are the Blues doing it? For one, they have a terrific power play. St. Louis has converted on 27.6% of its power plays, the third-highest mark in the NHL.

But even St. Louis' power play is due for a bit of regression. The Blues are currently averaging 10 goals per 60 minutes on the man advantage, but they are only generating 5.2 expected goals per hour on the power play. St. Louis' league-best 20.7% shooting percentage on the PP is providing a lifeline for a desperate offense.

The Blues have done a terrific job of banking points without playing great in the early going. That will go a way in helping the defending champs get back into the tournament, but they better get their act together before their numbers catch up to them.

Overall, its been a decent start to the season for the Coyotes. The Desert Dogs are 9-6-2 through their first 17 games and rank 13th in the NHL with a 51.3 xG%.

Arizona's success is built on its defensive structure. The Coyotes are allowing 8.61 high-danger chances at 5-on-5 this season, which is the fourth-best mark in the National Hockey League.

Heatmap via HockeyViz.

I'm not thrilled about the idea of backing a team playing its sixth game in nine nights, but I'm hoping the price on Arizona climbs throughout the day.  I can't imagine bettors will be lining up at the window to get down on the 'Yotes in this spot against this opponent.

My strategy for this game is to wait out the market and hope the price on Arizona gets to +150. If it does, I'll be tapping the Coyotes, if it never gets there, I'll look to fade the Blues another day.

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