Bayern Munich Massive Favorites to Win 7th Straight Bundesliga Title

May 07, 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Credit:

Reuters. Pictured: Bayern Munich’s Kingsley Coman

  • Bayern Munich took care of business against Hannover last weekend as heavy favorites and are now in complete control to win their seventh straight Bundesliga title.
  • Dortmund's league title hopes took a massive hit after blowing a 2-0 lead at Werder Bremen to draw, 2-2.

Dortmund were cruising on Saturday in a must-win match at Werder Bremen until conceding twice in the second half to tie, 2-2.

That means they’re now four points behind Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga standings with just two matches remaining.

Current Bundesliga Leaders

Bayern Munich do have the tougher schedule remaining, but they can seal the title automatically with three points. They could even lose their last two games and still take the crown if Dortmund drop any points whatsoever.

Unless something extremely crazy happens, Bayern will own the goal differential tiebreaker, so it makes sense that they’re lofty -3500 favorites to win the title at this point.

Bayern are -140 favorites at RB Leipzig this weekend and -230 favorites against Frankfurt in the season finale.

Dortmund are -300 favorites vs. Dusseldorf this Saturday, but are +125 road underdogs at Monchengladbach on the final matchday.

Bundesliga Title Odds Throughout Season

Bayern Munich have been the clear favorites over the past couple months, but there was a period of time they were being offered between +110 and +130.

Dortmund were listed at +700 odds to win the title entering the season and were never higher than that until now.

Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery — two mainstays at Bayern Munich this decade — will both be leaving the club at the end of the season and would love to go out on top.

Another Bundesliga title would be well-deserved for them this season as the team has severely outperformed Dortmund. Bayern’s expected point total (xPTS) sits at 76.69, which is 2.69 points above where they’re actually at.

On the flip side, Dortmund’s xPTS is 11.10 points lower than what they’ve accomplished (70 points), so the title race could have been over a long time ago.

To put the stats into further perspective, Bayern’s expected goal differential (xGD) is 60.04 while Dortmund’s is just 20.43, nearly a 40-goal margin. That’s nearly unheard of for teams that are first and second in the standings.

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