The Ultimate Super Bowl 53 Betting Guide: Can You Trust the Rams to Pull the Upset?

Feb 03, 2019 09:00 AM EST
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady, Jared Goff

Super Bowl 53 Betting Odds: New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams

  • Spread: Patriots -2.5
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Sunday morning. Download The Action Network App to track your bets for Super Bowl 53.


Betting Market

Rams Money (Finally) Shows Up

When the Patriots moved from pick’em to -2.5 shortly after opening behind more than 80% of spread bets and dollars, nobody thought it would hold up.

It did for a very long time, but Sunday action on the Rams has finally moved betting percentages and the spread (see live betting data).

Reverse line movement on the Rams on Sunday morning moved the line to NE -2 at a handful of books, and since then, others have followed suit.

The Patriots’ betting percentages have also dropped a great deal. On Saturday night, they were getting 75% of bets and 71% of dollars. As of 4:45 p.m. ET Sunday, those are down to 68% and 66%, respectively.

Though the spread was at a standstill for a long time, the over/under has seen steady line movement over the past two weeks. It’s shifted from 58.5 to 55.5, slowly ticking down by a half point since opening. — Mark Gallant

Betting market trends

Sixteen different Super Bowls have seen the point spread move a point and a half or more between the opening and closing lines.

The team that saw the point spread move in their direction are 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS in Super Bowl history. — Evan Abrams

Over the Pats’ past seven Super Bowl appearances, they are 2-0 against the spread when they receive 60% or more of the bets and 0-5 ATS when they receive 59% or fewer, per our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams

The Pats are on pace to be just be the 10th team since 2003 to close with 70% or more of bets in a playoff game. The previous nine teams went 6-3 straight-up and ATS. — John Ewing

The Patriots-Rams over/under opened 58.5 and has been bet down to 56.5. Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet the under when the line decreases in the NFL playoffs.John Ewing

The Action Network Spread

Our proprietary power ratings, powered by Sean Koerner’s projections, make the spread for this game Rams -0.2.

Super Bowl 53 Trends

Brady and the Pats