WNBA Betting: Should You Buy Low on the Atlanta Dream?

Atlanta enters Tuesday’s matchup against Minnesota having lost three games in a row and eight of nine. The Dream (2-8), who have the WNBA’s worst record, have also been outscored on average by 10.4 points per game this season. And the line for tonight’s matchup reflects the current form of each squad.

The Dream are on a bad streak while the Lynx are trending in the right direction. Minnesota has a .500 record but has won two of its past three games and is fifth in the league in point differential.

The oddsmakers opened Minnesota as an 8-point favorite. All signs point to the chalk, so is there value betting the favorite? Using Bet Labs, I’ve found a profitable against the spread (ATS) system with a match for Lynx-Dream.

On paper this looks like a great spot for Minnesota. Yet, the line has moved from Lynx -8 to -7.5. A steam move was triggered on the Dream, which is an indication of sharp action.

What do the pros know that we don’t? One reason smart money might be on the Dream is that it's been profitable to bet teams on a bad streak (have been outscored on average in past five games) when they face an opponent on a good streak (have outscored opponents on average in past five games).

Since 2005, teams in this situation have gone 514-401-23 (56.2%) ATS. The win rate isn’t eye-popping, but you can’t argue with the sample size (nearly a 1,000 games) or the results (profitable in 12-of-15 seasons since 2005).

Of course, we can improve this system. One way is to look at line movement. If the line moves in the direction of the team on a bad streak by at least a 0.5-point or more, like it has for the Dream, the system improves to 215-150-8 (58.9%) ATS.

A majority of spread tickets are on the favorite (see live public betting data here), but sharp money and betting history suggest taking the Dream as road underdogs.