Koerner: Use My Projected WNBA Betting Odds to Find Best Mystics-Aces, Mercury-Wings Lines on Thursday

We have two WNBA matchups on the docket for Thursday night.

Let's dive right into my projected odds for the Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces, and what lines I'll be looking to bet.

Find more on my WNBA Power Ratings and how I use them to project betting odds here.

Phoenix Mercury (2-4) at Dallas Wings (1-5)

• Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET

The Wings are by far the worst team in the WNBA right now and are last in my power ratings by a wide margin.

Their star player, Skylar Diggins-Smith, is easing her way back into game shape after giving birth and should return at some point this season. To add insult to injury, the Wings have now also lost key player Glory Johnson, who is departing the team to go play overseas. I’m docking 1 point from their power rating due to that loss, making the Wings a full six points lower than the second-lowest rated team in the league.

It’s poor timing for the Wings to lose their leading rebounder just before their matchup against the Mercury’s strong frontcourt of DeWanna Bonner and Brittney Griner.

The Mercury have struggled early on this season. They're awaiting the return of future Hall of Famer Diana Taurasi, who is out with a back injury.

Expect Griner and the Mercury to get their season back on track against the Wings. I have the Mercury as 7-point favorites here and think the opening number will be pretty close to that.

The total for this game is what I will be watching. These are the bottom-two teams in pace, so this is going to be one of the lowest totals we'll see all season.

I have it set at 145.5 and will pounce on the under if it opens anywhere near 150.

Projected Spread: Mercury -7
Projected Total: 145.5

Washington Mystics (5-3) at Las Vegas Aces (4-3)

• Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET

This is a battle of two of the top three teams in my power ratings.

The Mystics are fresh off a 29-point beatdown of the Sparks, so recency bias could create some value in the market if books hesitate to give the Mystics too many points on the road.

Don’t let the current standings fool you: I currently have the Aces as the No. 1 team in my power ratings for a reason.

Liz Cambage has been eased into the rotation on her new team due to some tendinitis. However, she's fresh off a season-high 33 minutes, which means the Aces are at full strength now. Expect them to go on a tear, starting with this matchup that I have them favored in by five points.

I'll be anticipating the market to underrate the Aces' current form and hammer them if they hit -2.5 or less.

The Aces play at the fastest pace in the league, and most of their games end up being remarkably close to the total, making it critical to get the best number possible if you can. The Mystics are one of the slower teams, but are also the most efficient offensive team. One trend I’ve noticed that spins off those two factors is that if the Mystics lose, the under crushes.

Washington's over/under finishes have been very erratic in 2019, but digging deeper I noticed it followed my theory about the under being a great correlation play if we expect the Mystics to lose.

What all that tells me is taking the Aces and the under as a parlay is a smart correlation bet here.

I have the total set for 167.5, but with the factors above, it does seem like there's some hidden value in the under, even if books set the line in that range.

Ideally I'll be parlaying Aces/under here.

Projected Spread: Aces -5
Projected Total: 167.5