WNBA Betting: Sun Should Right the Ship vs. Liberty

For the Connecticut Sun, the 2018 WNBA season has been a story of highs and lows.  After racing out to a 7-2 start powered by a high-octane offense, the Sun have sputtered to a 3-7 mark in the last 10 games.  The team now finds itself one game over .500 at 10-9 as it quickly approaches the fringes of the playoff picture.

Over that most recent 10-game stretch, the Sun have been snake-bitten: first, the team lost Alyssa Thomas, perhaps Connecticut’s most dynamic defender and a key contributor on offense, to a shoulder injury.

Next, rumors of an ‘altercation’ between teammates Courtney Williams and Alex Bentley led to Williams’ absence from the team.  This rumored altercation appears to have served as the motivation behind the team’s Monday trade of Alex Bentley to the Atlanta Dream.

It certainly hasn’t helped that the latest locker room drama has unfolded during a difficult west coast road trip.  But perhaps things are finally reaching a turning point for Connecticut.  With Bentley’s trade, Williams — the team’s third-leading scorer — seems likely to return to the team.  She will be joined by 2017 All-Star point guard Layshia Clarendon, who Atlanta will be sending back in the Bentley deal.  Most importantly, Thomas is listed probable and appears on track to play for the first time in nearly a month.

Playing its first home game in what seems like an eternity, Connecticut may feel like the slate had been wiped clean ahead of its Wednesday matchup against the New York Liberty.

In leveraging BetLabs’ historical odds database, I also found that Connecticut matches the following profitable trend ahead of tonight’s contest.

The last 110 times a team's record is above .500, but they're 4-6 or worse over the past 10 games, a $100 bettor would have profited $681 for a 5.7% ROI.

To this point, we’ve barely mentioned tonight’s opponent, the New York Liberty, which has spent much of the 2018 season tripping over its own feet.  It has been a difficult transition for the Liberty in their first season following former coach Bill Laimbeer’s departure.  The 5-14 Liberty have struggled to find complimentary pieces to take the pressure off Tina Charles and they will have their hands full with a Connecticut Sun team that is one of the deepest in the league when at full health.

If the Sun lose this game against the Liberty, they are in real trouble, but I'm willing to chalk up the last 10 games to a difficult road trip that was compounded by other external factors. I'll be taking them at -7.5 today.