Sean Koerner’s 2022-23 QB Ratings: How Valuable Every Quarterback Is to the Spread

Sean Koerner’s 2022-23 QB Ratings: How Valuable Every Quarterback Is to the Spread article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Tom Brady.

As we enter the 2022 preseason, I want to introduce our QB Ratings.

Our Predictive Analytics team created these to grade how much each NFL quarterback is worth against the point spread. It’s essentially a full list of how we value all 111 active QBs heading into the preseason.

When it comes to preseason betting, one of the best ways to get an edge is to find times where there is a significant mismatch between QBs. Of course, there are going to be other factors involved, such as if the entire first- or second-team offense will be on the field with that QB or many other factors, but I have found if you at least key in on the most important position, you can gain an edge. That’s especially the case when you have a pretty good idea as to when specific QBs will see their playing time.

That’s why I have created these QB tables for every upcoming pre-season game. Here is what they look like for the Hall of Fame Game:

The tables list each quarterback currently on the roster, their value against the spread, and how many projected snaps I’m estimating, along with a rough projection of when they will be in the game. The solid green color is when I think they will likely be in the game, with the shaded areas when I think the potential QB change will happen.

These tables are a visual representation of how I have processed my pregame and in-game decisions in the past in a much clearer form.

Based on these charts, you can see that the Raiders had a 2-2.5 point edge in the first half. Once we got to the fourth quarter, the Jaguars had a decent 2.5-point edge.

A very reasonable approach to the game (using these charts) would have been to back the Raiders in the first half and then come in on the Jaguars at the end of the third quarter. Sure enough, both plays would have cashed.Fantasy Football CTA for PRO

NFL Preseason Quarterback Matchups

This will be updated before every slate of preseason games.

Projected NFL Quarterback Ratings

Patrick MahomesKC7.5
Aaron RodgersGB7
Tom BradyTB7
Josh AllenBUF6.5
Russell WilsonDEN6.5
Justin HerbertLAC6
Joe BurrowCIN5.5
Deshaun WatsonCLE5
Matthew StaffordLAR5
Lamar JacksonBAL4.5
Dak PrescottDAL4.5
Kyler MurrayARI4
Derek CarrLV4
Kirk CousinsMIN3.5
Matt RyanIND3
Ryan TannehillTEN3
Mac JonesNE2.5
Jalen HurtsPHI2.5
Baker MayfieldCAR2
Justin FieldsCHI2
Tua TagovailoaMIA2
Jimmy GaroppoloSF2
Carson WentzWAS2
Jared GoffDET1.5
Trevor LawrenceJAX1.5
Jameis WinstonNO1.5
Davis MillsHOU1
Daniel JonesNYG1
Zach WilsonNYJ1
Trey LanceSF1
Marcus MariotaATL0.5
Sam DarnoldCAR0.5
Jacoby BrissettCLE0.5
Teddy BridgewaterMIA0.5
Andy DaltonNO0
Gardner MinshewPHI0
Mitchell TrubiskyPIT0
Geno SmithSEA0
Tyler HuntleyBAL-0.5
Case KeenumBUF-0.5
Nick FolesIND-0.5
Tyrod TayorNYG-0.5
Drew LockSEA-0.5
Taylor HeinickeWAS-0.5
Colt McCoyARI-1
Desmond RidderATL-1
Cooper RushDAL-1
Josh JohnsonDEN-1
Jordan LoveGB-1
Kyle AllenHOU-1
C.J. BeathardJAX-1
Chad HenneKC-1
Chase DanielLAC-1
Brian HoyerNE-1
Joe FlaccoNYJ-1
Mike WhiteNYJ-1
Mason RudolphPIT-1
Matt BarkleyBUF-1.5
Matt CorralCAR-1.5
Trevor SiemianCHI-1.5
Brandon AllenCIN-1.5
Jeff DriskelHOU-1.5
John WolfordLAR-1.5
Nick MullensLV-1.5
Kellen MondMIN-1.5
Nate SudfeldSF-1.5
Ryan GriffinTB-1.5
Malik WillisTEN-1.5
Sam HowellWAS-1.5
Nathan PetermanCHI-2
Josh RosenCLE-2
Ben DiNucciDAL-2
Brett RypienDEN-2
David BloughDET-2
Sam EhlingerIND-2
Bryce PerkinsLAR-2
Jarrett StidhamLV-2
Sean MannionMIN-2
Bailey ZappeNE-2
Carson StrongPHI-2
Reid SinnettPHI-2
Blaine GabbertTB-2
Kyle TraskTB-2
Logan WoodsideTEN-2
Trace McSorleyARI-2.5
Brett HundleyBAL-2.5
Anthony BrownBAL-2.5
P.J. WalkerCAR-2.5
Joshua DobbsCLE-2.5
Will GrierDAL-2.5
Tim BoyleDET-2.5
Easton StickLAC-2.5
Luis PerezLAR-2.5
Ian BookNO-2.5
Davis WebbNYG-2.5
Jacob EasonSEA-2.5
Brock PurdySF-2.5
Feleipe FranksATL-3
Shane BuecheleKC-3
Danny EtlingGB-3.5
Jake LutonJAX-3.5
Skylar ThompsonMIA-3.5
Jake BrowningCIN-4
Brandon PetersLAC-4
Chase GarbersLV-4
Cole KelleyWAS-4
Jack CoanIND-4.5
Dustin CrumKC-4.5
Chris OladokunPIT-4.5
Jarrett GuarantanoARI-5
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