Sean Koerner’s 2022-23 QB Ratings: How Valuable Every Quarterback Is to the Spread
Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes (left) and Tom Brady.
As we enter the 2022 preseason, I want to introduce our QB Ratings.
Our Predictive Analytics team created these to grade how much each NFL quarterback is worth against the point spread. It’s essentially a full list of how we value all 111 active QBs heading into the preseason.
When it comes to preseason betting, one of the best ways to get an edge is to find times where there is a significant mismatch between QBs. Of course, there are going to be other factors involved, such as if the entire first- or second-team offense will be on the field with that QB or many other factors, but I have found if you at least key in on the most important position, you can gain an edge. That’s especially the case when you have a pretty good idea as to when specific QBs will see their playing time.
That’s why I have created these QB tables for every upcoming pre-season game. Here is what they look like for the Hall of Fame Game:
The tables list each quarterback currently on the roster, their value against the spread, and how many projected snaps I’m estimating, along with a rough projection of when they will be in the game. The solid green color is when I think they will likely be in the game, with the shaded areas when I think the potential QB change will happen.
These tables are a visual representation of how I have processed my pregame and in-game decisions in the past in a much clearer form.
Based on these charts, you can see that the Raiders had a 2-2.5 point edge in the first half. Once we got to the fourth quarter, the Jaguars had a decent 2.5-point edge.
A very reasonable approach to the game (using these charts) would have been to back the Raiders in the first half and then come in on the Jaguars at the end of the third quarter. Sure enough, both plays would have cashed.
NFL Preseason Quarterback Matchups
This will be updated before every slate of preseason games.
Projected NFL Quarterback Ratings
| Quarterback | Team | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 7.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 7 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 6.5 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | 6.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 5.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | 5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 4.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 4.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 4 |
| Derek Carr | LV | 4 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 3.5 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | 3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 3 |
| Mac Jones | NE | 2.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 2.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | 2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | 2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 2 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | 2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 1.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 1.5 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | 1.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | 1 |
| Trey Lance | SF | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | 0.5 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | 0.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | 0.5 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIA | 0.5 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | PHI | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | 0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | -0.5 |
| Case Keenum | BUF | -0.5 |
| Nick Foles | IND | -0.5 |
| Tyrod Tayor | NYG | -0.5 |
| Drew Lock | SEA | -0.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | -0.5 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | -1 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | -1 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | -1 |
| Josh Johnson | DEN | -1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | -1 |
| Kyle Allen | HOU | -1 |
| C.J. Beathard | JAX | -1 |
| Chad Henne | KC | -1 |
| Chase Daniel | LAC | -1 |
| Brian Hoyer | NE | -1 |
| Joe Flacco | NYJ | -1 |
| Mike White | NYJ | -1 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | -1 |
| Matt Barkley | BUF | -1.5 |
| Matt Corral | CAR | -1.5 |
| Trevor Siemian | CHI | -1.5 |
| Brandon Allen | CIN | -1.5 |
| Jeff Driskel | HOU | -1.5 |
| John Wolford | LAR | -1.5 |
| Nick Mullens | LV | -1.5 |
| Kellen Mond | MIN | -1.5 |
| Nate Sudfeld | SF | -1.5 |
| Ryan Griffin | TB | -1.5 |
| Malik Willis | TEN | -1.5 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | -1.5 |
| Nathan Peterman | CHI | -2 |
| Josh Rosen | CLE | -2 |
| Ben DiNucci | DAL | -2 |
| Brett Rypien | DEN | -2 |
| David Blough | DET | -2 |
| Sam Ehlinger | IND | -2 |
| Bryce Perkins | LAR | -2 |
| Jarrett Stidham | LV | -2 |
| Sean Mannion | MIN | -2 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | -2 |
| Carson Strong | PHI | -2 |
| Reid Sinnett | PHI | -2 |
| Blaine Gabbert | TB | -2 |
| Kyle Trask | TB | -2 |
| Logan Woodside | TEN | -2 |
| Trace McSorley | ARI | -2.5 |
| Brett Hundley | BAL | -2.5 |
| Anthony Brown | BAL | -2.5 |
| P.J. Walker | CAR | -2.5 |
| Joshua Dobbs | CLE | -2.5 |
| Will Grier | DAL | -2.5 |
| Tim Boyle | DET | -2.5 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | -2.5 |
| Luis Perez | LAR | -2.5 |
| Ian Book | NO | -2.5 |
| Davis Webb | NYG | -2.5 |
| Jacob Eason | SEA | -2.5 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | -2.5 |
| Feleipe Franks | ATL | -3 |
| Shane Buechele | KC | -3 |
| Danny Etling | GB | -3.5 |
| Jake Luton | JAX | -3.5 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | -3.5 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | -4 |
| Brandon Peters | LAC | -4 |
| Chase Garbers | LV | -4 |
| Cole Kelley | WAS | -4 |
| Jack Coan | IND | -4.5 |
| Dustin Crum | KC | -4.5 |
| Chris Oladokun | PIT | -4.5 |
| Jarrett Guarantano | ARI | -5 |
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