Best Original Screenplay Predictions & Betting Odds for the 2020 Oscars
Tommaso Boddi/Getty Images. Pictured: Bong Joon-ho.
Best Original Screenplay Prediction for 2020 Oscars
Chris Raybon: Parasite (up to -250)
Parasite won Best Original Screenplay from the Writer’s Guild, and the winner of that award has gone on to repeat at the Oscars in 22 of the 33 years in which it was nominated (66.7%).
But it gets tricky because Quentin Tarantino was ineligible at the Writer’s Guild, despite nabbing wins for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards and beating out Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite on both occasions. However, Joon-ho won the more prestigious Best Director prize over Tarantino at the latter event, and also beat out Tarantino in this category at the BAFTAs.
Some voters view this category as a consolation prize for Best Picture and/or Best Director. This would seem to favor Joon-ho, whose film trails 1917 in both of those categories, but is favored over Tarantino’s work.
When human decision-making is involved, I like to rely on the experts over computer math, and 71% are siding with Parasite. Luckily, I grabbed Parasite at +450 shortly after Oscar nominations were released, but it remains the best bet.
Best Original Screenplay Betting Odds for 2020 Oscars
- Parasite -230
- Once Upon A Time in Hollywood +150
- Marriage Story +1400
- 1917 +3300
- Knives Out +4000