Marky’s Malarkey: Dumb Props that Bettors Should Avoid
- Marky loves researching and finding value in silly prop bets he sees around the market.
- Part of being a winner gambler involves knowing what not to bet, and he's found several that should be avoided.
- Ranging from Mars props to odds on his beloved Olympics, Marky breaks down which props aren't worth your money.
If there’s one thing I’m qualified to talk about, it’s dumb prop bets. In my day, I’ve written about almost everything the gambling market has to offer.
From Super Bowl cleavage props to papal props to hot dog contest over/unders — if it’s out there, I’ll write about it.
In fact, I pride myself in my ability to go too far researching props, most of which have very low limits, to find value. They don’t call me the Billy Walters of Beat Pat McAfee specials for nothin’.
When a guy who spent ~30 hours figuring out how many people Michael Myers would kill in the latest “Halloween” movie tells you not to bet on something, though, you should probably lay off.
Below are a handful of offerings from around the market that I wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole.
Over the past several months, there has been an influx of Mars props thanks to Elon Musk.
One I’ve seen a few times is whether or not a man will walk on Mars by 2025 … as in seven years from now.
There’s a lot of things you can do with money to make a profit over the course of seven years. This option lands somewhere between investing in penny stocks and burning it.
What day of the week will the Royal Baby be born?
It doesn’t take a math genius to figure out how to bet a “day of the week” prop.
Step one: Know how many days there are in a week
Wow, two “Family Guy” videos in a row! This guy must really like “Family Guy,” huh!?
Step two: Figure out what the payout would need to be for you to make a profit over the long haul.
If you’re a big “day of the week” sharp bettor, you’ll know that you have just a one-in-seven chance of hitting your bet.
Since you will lose six out of every seven times, you need at least a +601 payout to make a solid .01 unit every seven bets, on average.
One book is offering +550 for each day. Don’t bet on that. What are you, a dumb-dumb?
Funny enough, another book has different odds for each day, varying from +350 on Thursday to +650 on Sunday and everything between.
Well I’ll be a son of a gun … I just found value on something I specifically said not to bet.
Unless there’s an inside tip regarding a scheduled C-section on a Thursday, I’m not quite sure what to make of this.
Watch the baby be born on a Thursday …
I know what you’re going to say, “Mahky, you love the Winter Olympics like [insert politically correct alternative for “a fat kid loves cake”].
This is true. One of my most enjoyable betting experiences was going all in on Team Norway and sweating the Olympics for two straight weeks.
Waking up at 6 a.m. to watch biathlon … staying up until 3 a.m. to watch the Winter Olympics GOAT — Marit Bjorgen —cross-country ski across that finish line with the Norwegian flag in hand. Just an all-around joy.
However, the unfortunate thing about the Olympics is that they roll around once every four years. You’re telling me they haven’t figured out a way to get these things running yearly?
Maybe when gambling is legalized across the United States we’ll give them more of a push to get the games running more frequently.
Much like the Mars props, this involves a seriously long waiting period. Some of the athletes who will compete in 2022 are legitimately in middle school right now. Maybe even some fourth- or fifth-graders.
Will Norway still be the +160 favorite to win the most gold medals three years from now? Perhaps. It does have a pipeline of young, svelte Scandinavian cross-country skiers, so its ceiling truly is the roof.
There is the possibility that I can’t resist my own instructions and hammer Norway down to even-money in the meantime.
Wait a second … no Summer Olympics, either? How is one to make a living if one can not bet on Winter or Summer Olympics?
You can currently bet on whether or not the United States men’s hoops team will take home the gold, with “yes” listed at -1050.
You can go contrarian and take “no” at +550, but who are we kidding, here? It would be a traveshamockery if Team USA doesn’t win.
Put some money in a savings account. Make a little interest. Do not bet on things that happen more than one year away when there’s no incentive to, especially when you’re laying more than a dime to make a Benjamin.
(Don’t worry, I have big plans for the Summer Olympics when the time comes.)
Bonus: Courtney Lee free-agency odds
This one’s a bit different. This is more funny than stupid, in my mind.
This prop is sort of the same as any other free-agency prop. There might be value, there might not be … who knows? Usually, props are offered for superstar players. All-Stars. Big names.
The 33-year-old guard who averaged 12 points per game on the 29-53 Knicks last year?
The wording is “Team Courtney Lee signs with for 2019 NBA season.” The ironic part is that Lee is signed through the 2019-20 season according to good old trusty Spotrac, and there is seemingly no team or player option.
So why does this prop exist? The Knicks are available at +300, does it count if he was already signed with them?
That’s it for now. I’ll probably do this again when I see a new glut o’ garbage.
P.S. – Paddy Power should consider itself lucky that its site is currently not allowing visitors from the U.S. (they’ve been going back and forth for months now).
I could write an entire book with the stuff I’ve seen there.