Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Best Bets, Featuring Brentford vs. West Ham United

This past weekend, we saw a pretty big shakeup in the Premier League when Tottenham cruised to a 5-1 rout against Newcastle United and Arsenal was dealt a stunning 3-0 road defeat against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.

Now, the biggest showdown of the entire EPL season takes place Sunday when Manchester City welcomes Liverpool to Etihad Stadium for a showdown of epic proportions.

The Cityzens hold a one-point lead over the Reds with eight matches left in the season. If they can beat manager Jürgen Klopp's side, Manchester City will be in the driver’s seat. If Liverpool keeps its red-hot run of form going and earns the victory, it would have a two-point advantage.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Newcastle vs. Wolves

Wolverhamton is one of the league’s biggest over-performers, but the market has drastically overreacted in my opinion.

Stylistically in their tactics, the club is extremely conservative playing a very compact mid-block. Wolves allow teams to come into their final third of the field, but they’re actually very good at not allowing them to create high-quality chances.

If you throw out the match against Leeds United where the club was down to 10 men, they’ve only allowed a total of nine big scoring chances in their last 14 matches.

Wolves are seventh in big scoring chances allowed and came alive against a good Aston Villa defense last weekend by creating 1.95 expected goals and created three big scoring chances.

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It’s just the second time they’ve generated more than one xG in their last 10 matches. Now, they get to face a Newcastle defense that allowed five big scoring chances to Tottenham last weekend.

Wolverhampton is measured and meticulous with its buildup play. The club sits eighth in 10+ pass sequences, plus it’s in the bottom half of the league in direct speed, per Opta. So, even though it is over-performing on both ends of the pitch, the style of play lends itself to low-scoring, slow-tempo type matches. 

As for Newcastle, I think it has hit a wall. The Magpies, who created just 2.36 xG in their last four games, are safe from relegation, so the motivation level has to be a question mark. They’re also still without Callum Wilson and Kieran Trippier.

Newcastle has been over-performing as well. Since Jan. 15, the club has picked up 20 points in 11 matches, but its expected points is only 14.10 overall. The Magpies are bottom five in Offensive PPDA in that timeframe, so even though Wolves doesn’t press a ton, I find it hard to believe they’re going to find success here.

I have Wolves projected as a slight favorite on the road, so I like the value on the club getting +0.5 goals on the spread line and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Wolves +0.5 (-154)

Everton vs. Man United 

I really don’t think Everton can be this bad for too much longer. 

There is some positive regression coming for the Toffees at some point since they have a -19 actual goal differential, but a -10.1 xGDiff overall. That’s also with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison missing a combined 24 matches.

There’s a chance Yerry Mina returns, which would be massive for Everton. With Mina in the lineup, the club is only allowing 1.10 xGA per match. Without him, that number jumps to 1.63 xG per game.

So, what has Manchester United done to be deserving of a -130 moneyline favorite? Everton struggles versus teams that press and United is 10th in PPDA and high turnovers, per Opta. The Toffees, who are struggling to create big scoring chances, face an opponent that has allowed the ninth most in the English top flight.

On the road, the Red Devils have a -3.9 xGDiff, while their foes have a +0.6 xGDiff at Goodison Park, per fbref.com. Manchester United also has just three wins in its last nine away matches, conceding 1.83 xG per 90 minutes in those nine tilts.

Finally, the last time they met, Everton left Old Trafford with a deserving draw, as the final xG battle wound up a 1.1-0.9 in the visitor’s favor.

I only have Manchester United projected as a +116 ML road favorite, so I like the price on Everton ahead of this game.

Pick: Everton +0.5 (+105)

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Brentford vs. West Ham

This is a fantastic price and spot on Brentford. The Bees, coming off a 4-1 drubbing of Chelsea, are starting to see the positive regression coming to fruition. In their last four matches, they have a +2.1 xGDiff and have created 7.4 xG overall.

The main thing for the Bees is they’re fully healthy. A lot of what went wrong for them in the middle of the season is because they were missing key pieces like Ivan Toney, David Raya, and Sergi Canós for extended periods of time. Plus the addition of Christian Eriksen has done wonders for their attack, as it has produced 1.6 xG + xA in his four appearances.

Brentford plays so better at home as well. In their last four home matches at full strength (not counting the Newcastle match when the Bees got a red card in the 12th minute), they have have a +0.85 xGDiff per 90 minutes and created 6.8 xG combined in those contests.

Where Brentford tends to struggle is when it plays teams that can press them. The Bees are 17th in pressure success rate allowed and 19th in ball recoveries allowed. The Hammers are the ones to exploit them, though, as they’re 16th in both PPDA and pressure success rate. 

West Ham has been in really weird form of late. Since the start of February, the Hammers have a -1.8 xGDiff and average just 0.94 xG per match in that span. Yet, prior to February, they were averaging 1.63 xG per outing.

Additionally, West Ham has lost four consecutive EPL road matches and has a -4.7 xGDiff away from the London Stadium. In contrast, Brentford has  a +3.6 xGDiff at Brentford Community Stadium versus a -7.2 xGDiff away from it, per fbref.com. Plus, West Ham had a Europa League match on Thursday against Lyon, so Brentford will have a rest advantage. 

I have Brentford projected as slight favorite, so I love the club on the Draw No Bet wager at +100 odds.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (+100)

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Leicester vs. Crystal Palace

Sure, Crystal Palace’s away form has been terrible, but their opponent is overvalued. 

Leicester City did get Johnny Evans back against Manchester United, but this is still one of the worst EPL defenses. For the season, the Foxes are allowing 1.70 xGA per match and conceded 6.9 xGA in their last four games.

A lot of where the Crystal Palace offense is created comes from the flanks via crosses. The Eagles have completed the seventh most crosses into the penalty area, while Leicester is allowing the fifth most overall.

When these sides met in October, the Foxes blew a two-goal lead and we’re thoroughly dominated. The Eagles had 30 shot-creating actions compared to nine for their foes. Crystal Palace, which out-touched Leicester in the penalty area by a 37-15 margin, and has a PPDA of 6.80, per understat.com.

The pressing success by Palace is significant because Leicester is average at playing through pressure, while Palace presses at the third-highest rate in the league.

The Eagles’ defense has been fantastic, ranking inside the top of five of pretty much every defensive metric. It has been especially good of late, allowing 0.98 xGA in their last eight matches. The Foxes have been over-performing, with six goals off 4.5 xG in its  last five matches.

I have Crystal Palace projected as a slight favorite, so I like the value on its Draw No Bet wager at +125 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (+125)