Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Liverpool vs. Everton (April 23-25)

Manchester City and Liverpool held serve in their respective midweek matches, which means the league leader continues to hold a one-point advantage over the latter with six matches to play.

The battle for the fourth and final Champions League spot took a big turn on Wednesday, though, after Arsenal pulled off a massive 4-2 upset win against Chelsea  in their London derby at Stamford Bridge.

There are a few tantalizing fixtures on the weekend slate, with Arsenal taking on Manchester United as the headliner. We also have a Merseyside derby pitting Liverpool against Watford, along with another London derby featuring Chelsea facing West Ham United.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Arsenal vs. Man United

What a performance from Arsenal to bring itself level with Tottenham in the race for the top four in the table. The Gunners didn’t hold a lot of possession in the match, but capitalized on a couple mistakes from the Blues, which ended up being the difference. 

Even though Arsenal had lost four of its previous five matches before the win, its level of form since the calendar turned to 2022 has been drastically better than Manchester United. The Gunners have a +0.63 xGDiff per 90 minutes, plus they’re allowing just 0.91 xG per match. As for Manchester United, the club only has a +0.24 xG per 90 minutes and concedes 1.34 xG per match.

United looks lost right now and without a clear plan of how they are going to set up. So many times players are pressing individually, which leaves wide-open gaps for teams to run in behind them, which is why it got thrashed by Liverpool.

It really becomes evident when the Red Devils have to play top sides, because against the rest of the big-six side they have a -8.7 xGDiff in eight games and yielding 1.70 xG per 90 minutes in those matches.

The home/away splits for these clubs are quite drastic, as Arsenal has a +13.6 xGDiff at Emirates Stadium. In contrast, United has a -5 xGDiff away from Old Trafford. The Red Devils are most likely going to be without Paul Pogba and Luke Shaw as well.

I have Arsenal projected at -105 on the moneyline wager, so I like the value on the host at +115 odds to grab all three points.

Pick: Arsenal ML (+115)

Brentford vs. Spurs

This is a fantastic home spot for Brentford to take down one of the big boys. The Bees are in fantastic form, winning five of their last six matches and putting up a +3.5 xGDiff in the process.

Tottenham was poor in its last outing at home against Brighton & Hove Albion, as it allowed the visiting side to hold 52% possession. The Seagulls also held a 12-5 edge in total shots and finished with a 23-13 advantage when it came to touches in the penalty area.

The biggest problem Spurs ran into is their pressing was not successful at all, as manager Antonio Conte’s men only put up a 23.5% pressure success rate. That will be welcoming news for Brentford, because if there is an area the club struggles, it’s playing through pressure since it ranks 17th in pressure success rate allowed.

The Bees play so much better at home than they do on the road as well. At Brentford Community Stadium, the Bees have a +4.8 xGDiff, but most importantly against the top-seven teams in the table, they have a +1.7 xGDiff overall.

Before the Brighton match, Tottenham was on fire, but over-performing drastically with its 21 goals off 13.6 xG in its last seven matches, so there’s still some negative regression coming for the visiting club.

I only have Tottenham projected at +153 on the three-way moneyline , so I like the value we have on the host side getting +0.5 goals via the alternative spread at -105 odds.

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-105)

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Liverpool vs. Everton

I understand Liverpool has been playing a ton of football lately, as this will be its seventh match in 22 days.

However, nobody in the world is in better form than manager Jürgen Klopp’s side. Liverpool has won 13 of its last 14 Premier League matches, boasting a +17.5 xGDiff in those contests.

The Reds have also won 11 consecutive games at Anfield in EPL action, plus they have a stunning +25.9 xGDiff in those tilts. Everton has been playing better of late, accumulatiing a +0.3 xGDiff in its last six matches, but this isn’t a great matchup

The Toffees really struggle when they have to play against teams that can press successfully, as they’re 18th in Offensive PPDA this season. As for the Reds, they have forced 375 high turnovers overall, which is 68 more than than anybody else in the English top flight, per Opta.

Everton has also conceded the second-most big scoring chances in the EPL, while Liverpool is generating big scoring chances for fun, averaging 2.40 per match. Additionally it looks like Everton is going to be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Andros Townsend, while Liverpool is fully healthy and able to rotate its squad.

I have the spread projected at Liverpool -2.53 ahead of this match, so I like the value we’re getting on the favorite giving -2 on the alternative line at +100 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Liverpool -2 (+100)