Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview, Best Bets: Back Favored Brentford vs. West Ham in EPL Clash

Brentford vs. West Ham Odds

Brentford stunned the Premier League with its come-from-behind, 4-1 victory against Chelsea last weekend at Stamford Bridge that saw the visitor post four consecutive goals in 37 minutes of the second half.

Next up for Brentford is the chance to take down another team above them in the Premier League table, with West Ham United visiting Brentford Community Stadium for Sunday's showdown.

It's another home London derby for the Bees, and they've shown themselves really well this season when facing better teams on their turf. They beat Arsenal, tied Liverpool and nearly defeated Chelsea earlier this year on home soil and now catch the Hammers in a great spot.

West Ham is on short rest following Thursday's Europa League home game against Lyon when it they had to play down a man for the entire second half. Given their position in the table with just a 2% chance of getting top four per FiveThirtyEight, West Ham might be overlooking this contest with one eye on next week's second leg in France.

The Hammers' best chance to get into the Champions League comes from winning that competition and their lack in squad depth has already been tested throughout the season. They've been inconsistent in the league since their hot start, and based on my projections remain overvalued in the market.

Eriksen Brings Hope, Skill to Brentford

When Brentford signed Christian Eriksen in the January transfer window seventh months after he collapsed at the European Championships playing for Denmark, it wasn't clear what he'd be able to really add.

However, he's really been the missing link to connect the Bees' solid defensive pressing structure with attackers Bryan Mbeumo and Ivan Toney. At times, they have struggled to string together counters and link midfield to the attack.

Eriksen is the perfect addition and he improves their threat on set pieces, which is an area Brentford was already among the best in the league. They're not just excellent on throw-ins and gain an edge there, but the Bees have the most xG created off set pieces in the entire EPL with 13.5 xG this season.

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That has produced 11 goals for Brentford this season. West Ham is also solid at generating chances from dead-ball situations, but the host is also above average at stopping teams from scoring on them with just eight goals yielded.

Despite three wins in four games, the Bees continued to be an underrated team in the season-long metrics. Brentford has a -3.6 xG difference, but its defense has very much underperformed due to bad shooting luck from its opponents. The Bees have gotten above-average goalkeeping play, but have still underperformed defensively by eight goals.

You'd expect that to even out over the course of a 38-game season, thus it's more likely than not that some bounces will go Brentford's way in the final matches of the season. Their defense hasn't sustained the early season elite form we saw on defense, but the Bees are 10th in NPxG per 90 minutes allowed and just 10th in big scoring chances conceded.

Brentford can struggle against teams who press high and produce high turnovers, but West Ham is just 16th in passes per defensive action.

Offensive Regression Coming for West Ham

West Ham earned a 2-1 home win against Everton last weekend, but the club was largely unimpressive against the relegation-level side. The Hammers managed just eight shots in the first 70 minutes until a red card was assessed, followed by a goal off an excellent free kick and breakdown in transition.

Expecting those things to be repeatable going forward is a bit of a stretch and this attack has largely run extremely well to cover up mediocre numbers.

The Hammers are ninth in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes and rank 10th in box entries. They struggle when not being successful on set pieces and have largely over-performed on the attack. West Ham has scored 51 goals from 42 xG, ranking first in goals per shot and goals per shot on target.

This could be sustainable if the quality of shots were by far the best in the league, but that's not really the case. The side is fifth in average shot distance and ninth in NPxG per shot.

All of this suggests the Hammers won't continue scoring at the rate they have for the remainder of the season. They have won the xG battle in just three of their last 10 EPL tilts and were largely outplayed in the first half of Thursday's home match against Lyon, when both teams were still at full strength.

BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

Even though Brentford has won its last two road matches, it still has pretty dramatic home and away splits. When playing at home this season, the Bees have a +0.53 xG difference per 90 minutes, which is sixth best in the league.

They've dramatically underperformed their xG in these home games, especially given they've averaged 1.4 xG, but scored less than one goal per game in front of their fans.

Brentford's defensive pressure should stifle West Ham's overrated attack and it's solid enough at the back to avoid the miscues that have handed away goals to their foe in recent games.

My projections put Brentford at -115 on the Draw No Bet line without any consideration for the short rest and brutal sandwich spot for the Hammers. The Bees have taken some money since opening a +105 on the Draw No Bet wager, but I'd play them at -110 in this market.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-110 or better)

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