League of Legends North America Odds, Picks (7/21-7/22): Thieves in the Fight
- The North American League is now in Week 5 of the summer split.
- This is the portion of the split when things will normalize and teams will make their runs for worlds.
- The meta continues to scale back towards normalcy as the earlier portion of the split becomes less and less relevant.
Week 5 of the North American League of Legends Championship Series is here, and we are beginning to move back toward true normalcy. ADCs are being picked in the majority of compositions, and we will start to see fluctuations that help the teams that are strongest in a traditional metagame. Despite the calming of the waters, plenty of teams will still be trying wild and crazy strategies to pick up a few wins this week.
But the big question: Should we bet them or fade them?
The summer-split picks I’ve recommended in articles and on Twitter are 57-31 (+21.5 units) coming into this weekend.
If you’re new to eSports, check out my League introduction. While I focus primarily on League betting in this breakdown, it has relevance to daily fantasy as well. If you’re playing League DFS, be sure to check out my evergreen strategy pieces.
- Three biggest eSports DFS mistakes and how to avoid them
- Two most important stats for League DFS
- How to build a winning League lineup
For DFS, pay attention to the Kills per Win (KPW) and Deaths per Loss (DPL) numbers for this split. In general, you’ll want to roster players on teams with high KPWs playing against teams with high DPLs.
All lines are from Bovada as of Friday evening.
- Golden Guardians: 19.7
- Echo Fox: 17.8
- 100 Thieves: 17.4
- Echo Fox: 22.6
- Clutch Gaming: 19.2
- Flyquest: 17.2
Betting odds: 100 Thieves vs. Echo Fox
- 100 Thieves: -125
- Echo Fox: EVEN
- Time: Saturday July 21 at 3 p.m. ET
Echo Fox is a team that’s always involved in a lot of my betting due to their duality. They can look like the best or the worst team in the league. They test out stuff that is genius or moronic. In this matchup against a surging 100 Thieves, the stats are pretty close. Echo Fox has a 46.3 Early Game Rating, and 100 Thieves has a 45.4. First blood rates are within 5%, first turret is the same, and first dragon is within 7%. I’m going with 100 Thieves for the consistency. I know what they are going to bring, and it’s going to be good. Echo Fox can be great, but more often than not they’re average. A more solid team will take the match more often since the skill levels are comparable.
The Bet: 100 Thieves -125
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Betting odds: 100 Thieves vs. Flyquest
- 100 Thieves: -165
- Flyquest: +130
- Time: Sunday July 22 at 2 p.m. ET
Everyone who follows me on Twitter knows I’m a huge fan of Flyquest, and they aren’t as bad as some people think. What they are not, however, are contenders. 100 Thieves, on the other hand, are, and I expect them to take this match an extremely high percentage of the time. Similar to the other match between 100 Thieves and Echo Fox, these teams’ stats are very similar, but once again I’m going to stick with consistency — even if it makes me sad.
The Bet: 100 Thieves -165
Betting odds: CounterLogic Gaming vs. Team Liquid
- CLG: +130
- Team Liquid: -165
- Time: Sunday July 22 at 3 p.m. ET
This is a matchup where I think we get some real value out of history. Team Liquid has a legacy of dominance in the last split and a half, but that dominance is predicated on a lie. The team just isn’t the same if DoubleLift is taken off a few of his best champions. With the incoming buffs for ADCs I expect them to return to form in the near future, but as long as the CLG coach bans correctly, I love CLG’s chances. CLG sports a 62.8 Early Game Rating (the best in the league), with 100% first blood, 63% first turret and the highest KD at 1.29. It may be tough to believe, but CLG should win this match as long as their coach shows up, which isn’t always reliable.
The Bet: CLG +130
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Betting odds: TSM vs. Clutch Gaming
- TSM: -160
- Clutch Gaming: +125
- Time: Sunday July 22 at 4 p.m. ET
TSM is a team that’s looked completely lost as of late. They sport the lowest EGR in the league, and only 25% respectively in first blood and first turret. For first dragon they drop even further, to 13%. In a metagame that has shown to reward teams with powerful early games, I’ll be betting against North America’s most famous franchise until they give me a reason not to. It adds into this decision that Clutch appears to be some sort of kryptonite for TSM, beating them in the playoffs last season and again earlier this season even when Clutch looked like the worse team.
The Bet: Clutch Gaming +125
Betting odds: Golden Guardians vs. Echo Fox
- Golden Guardians: +155
- Echo Fox: -195
- Time: Sunday 7/22 at 5 p.m. ET
CHOO CHOO. The hype train is pulling into the station for Golden Guardians. Last week’s matches were beautiful from GGS, and Mickey looked like the best midlaner in the league. I haven’t seen a performance like the one Mickey had last week in quite a while, and I’m buying into this lineup. They are hugely improved from last season, with an entirely different style. I like them to contend with Fox’s intimidating style blow-for-blow. They also outrank Fox in every major category, +7.7 in EGR, +32% in first blood, +12% in first turret and +18% in first dragon. Whoever gets the early lead in this game is going to snowball rapidly just due to the styles, so it’s a bit of a coin flip to me — and +155 on a coin flip is a great place to be.
The Bet: Golden Guardians +155
That’s all I’ve got for North America. Hopefully we see strategies continue to develop in this new meta; this is some of the best League we’ve seen in years. For additional information throughout the weekend and into next week, follow me on Twitter, where I regularly post additional picks as the action unfolds.
Until next time, I’ll see you on the rift.