Najee Harris Dynasty Fantasy Outlook, NFL Draft Profile & Prop Bets
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Najee Harris of Alabama.
Najee Harris Draft Profile
Najee Harris Draft Props
I don’t think a running back should go in Round 1, but if one does, I expect it will be Harris.
I have a bet on Harris at +125 to be the first running back selected in the draft.
Even with Travis Etienne’s excellent recent pro day …
Clemson running back Travis Etienne meets all the requirements when it comes to size, speed and production.
At 215 lbs, Etienne ran an unofficial 4.41 at @ClemsonFB pro day, helping him earn a 99 athleticism score according to the NGS draft model.
🔹 Pro Bowl Probability: 33% pic.twitter.com/ehgrDe7lrK
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) March 11, 2021
… the odds for Harris have shortened over the past few days.
When this prop was posted, Etienne was the clear favorite, but now Harris is the frontrunner at DraftKings and FanDuel (but not PointsBet).
- DraftKings: Harris -110 | Etienne +125
- FanDuel: Harris -105 | Etienne +130
- PointsBet: Harris -106 | Etienne -120
Even with Etienne’s pro day, and even though Harris doesn’t offer as much value as he once did, he still is bettable.
In my most recent mock draft, I have Harris going off the board as the only back selected in Round 1, and the rest of the industry is largely with me.
While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts, created by experts with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.
In these indexed mocks, Etienne has the slight edge in median draft position (23.5 vs. 24), but Harris easily has the superior mode and appears in a higher percentage of Round 1 mocks.
- Mode: Harris – 18 | Etienne – 23
- Drafts: Harris – 70% | Etienne – 20%
Right now, the expert mocks suggest that Harris is undervalued in the prop market.
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Ever since arriving at Alabama and recruiting “his guys,” head coach Nick Saban has had an eye for backs destined to be top-100 picks in the NFL Draft.
- Mark Ingram: 1.28 (2011)
- Trent Richardson: 1.03 (2012)
- Eddie Lacy: 2.61 (2013)
- T.J. Yeldon: 2.36 (2015)
- Derrick Henry: 2.45 (2016)
- Kenyan Drake: 3.73 (2016)
- Josh Jacobs: 1.24 (2019)
- Damien Harris: 3.87 (2019)
Make fun of Richardson and even Lacy if you want, but all of these former Alabama backs have had at least some degree of fantasy relevance in the NFL.
It would be hard to find a better prospect comp group for Harris, who seems destined to be a top-three pick in rookie dynasty drafts. Right now, I have him as the No. 2 back behind only Etienne in my way-too-early rookie rankings, but I’m not sold that Harris shouldn’t be the first back or maybe even the first player selected.
Harris entered college as a five-star recruit, and he certainly lived up to the hype at Alabama.
After backing up Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough as a freshman, Najee Harris as a sophomore split backfield work with upperclassmen Damien Harris and Jacobs and looked pretty good doing it.
He did almost nothing as a receiver in 2018, but as a runner he might have been the best of the Tuscaloosa trio, easily surpassing the other backs in yards per carry (YPC).
- Damien Harris (15 games): 150-876-9 rushing (5.8 YPC) | 22-204-0 receiving
- Josh Jacobs (15 games): 120-640-11 rushing (5.3 YPC) | 20-247-3 receiving
- Najee Harris (15 games): 117-783-4 rushing (6.7 YPC) | 4-7-0 receiving
As a junior and senior, he thrived in a post-Damien Harris/Jacobs backfield, breaking out as a true lead back.
- 2019 (13 games): 209-1,224-13 rushing | 27-304-7 receiving
- 2020 (12 games): 251-1,466-26 rushing | 43-425-4 receiving
Harris’ 22-79-2 rushing and 7-79-1 receiving performance in the College Football Championship was especially dominant, and in 2020 he was a unanimous All-American selection and the Doak Walker Award winner as the top back in college football.
While his production is nice, what Harris really has going for him is his size, receiving ability and likely draft position. With his grown-man measurements, Harris is a tough tackle for any defender, and his pass-catching skills are rare for a big-bodied back.
Harris might slip into Round 2, but right now he’s tentatively projected to be drafted on Day 1, and that’s significant, as it places him in the elite cohort of first-round backs to enter the NFL over the past decade at more than 220 pounds.
- Saquon Barkley (2018): 1.02 | 233 pounds
- Leonard Fournette (2017): 1.04 | 240 pounds
- Ezekiel Elliott (2016): 1.04 | 225 pounds
- Todd Gurley (2015): 1.10 | 222 pounds
- Trent Richardson (2012): 1.03 | 228 pounds
But Harris is not a prospect without potential drawbacks, the biggest of which is his age: He’s already 23 years old.
I wish Harris had entered the draft last year when he was first eligible because he truly had nothing left to prove in college, and in dynasty value there’s a big difference between a rookie back who is 22 and one who is 23 — but that’s a small complaint.
Harris is unlikely to have an especially long career, but he could still have multiple seasons of top-end production.
The other concerns with Harris are his athleticism and running style. It’s not as if Harris is unathletic, because he regularly hurdles defenders as if they’re trash cans …
THIS NAJEE HARRIS HURDLE 😱 #SCtop10 pic.twitter.com/3qiYJq9wPi
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 1, 2021
… but he is slow. Powerful, but slow. Even with all the attempts he had in four years at Alabama and the elite offensive line he had blocking for him, Harris had just 25 carries of 20-plus yards in his college career (per Pro Football Focus). Harris rarely loses yards, but he also almost never breaks long runs.
Maybe Harris’ lack of big plays is due in part to his playing style: Because he’s so tall, he runs with a high pad level — at least that’s what some film grinders say.
I don’t know, maybe he actually does run high. But I’m of the anecdotal opinion that his playing style probably doesn’t matter.
You know who else ran high in college? Adrian Peterson. DeMarco Murray. David Johnson. Derrick Henry. And in the NFL they continued to run high — for thousands and thousands of yards.
Of course, Harris almost certainly lacks the elite athleticism that set Peterson, Murray, Johnson and Henry apart as prospects. For a back unable to separate from defenders, running high might actually be a problem, but I’m skeptical.
With his recruitment grade, college production, expected draft capital, size and receiving ability, Harris looks like an immediate NFL starter and fantasy contributor.
NFL Prospect Comp: Leonard Fournette with superior receiving skills but also less size, speed and draft capital
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
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