Bundesliga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Wolfsburg (Saturday, Oct. 17)

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Photo by Christian Verheyen/Borussia Moenchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Alassane Plea.

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Wolfsburg Odds

Borussia Monchengladbach Odds -121 [BET NOW]
Wolfsburg Odds +310 [BET NOW]
Draw +285 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+123/-152) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET
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In Monchengladbach on Saturday, two teams headed in different directions will meet at Borussia-Park. Borussia Monchengladbach is back in the Champions League and entered the international break with its first win of the Bundesliga season, while Wolfsburg has scored once through three games, all of which finished draws.

Let’s dig into why Monchengladbach is very, very good value on Matchday 4 in the Bundesliga.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Borussia Monchengladbach is enjoying a bit of a renaissance at the moment. Once a fixture in the Champions League, the club returned to prominence in the Bundesliga under current Dortmund manager Lucien Favre. They returned to the top European competition with a top-four finish last season under manager Marco Rose.

So far, Monchengladbach has four points through its first three league games this season, but there is reason to believe Rose’s boys are headed in the right direction.

Rose sealed a top-four finish toward the end of last season without his top attacking options at his disposal in Frenchmen Marcus Thursam and Alassane Plea. The duo is back, and both have scored this season. Add them back into an attack that features veteran Lars Stindl and right winger Jonas Hofmann, who finished last season strong and has three assists in as many games this season, and it’s clear Monchengladbach is an attack waiting to explode.

Wolfsburg

It has been a difficult start to the new season for Wolfsburg. They have scored one goal through three Bundesliga games, all of which were draws, and AEK Athens knocked Die Wolfe out of the Europa League, as well.

Wolfsburg’s attack is lacking creativity at the moment, sitting 15th in the Bundesliga with 3.01 xG through three games. Wout Weghorst is a strong option at center forward, but the 6-foot-6 Dutchman is questionable for the match against Monchengladbach after suffering an injury in training. The Wolfsburg defense is solid, led by American John Anthony Brooks, sitting sixth in the league with 3.17 xGA.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Borussia Monchengladbach-Wolfsburg Pick

Monchengladbach is heading in the right direction, having increased its xG in each league game this season. After a 3-0 loss to Dortmund, Rose’s side was at 1.48 xG in a draw against Union Berlin before 2.06 in a 3-1 win over Cologne.

While the cutout fans started a global trend, fans being gradually allowed back into German stadiums will also help Monchengladbach, which finished second in home form last season in the Bundesliga behind only Bayern Munich.

Wolfsburg’s lack of creativity and Weghorst potentially missing the match mean the hosts will be the team to back. Monchengladbach’s moneyline on DraftKings is -121, which is a great number for a match that they should, on paper, win comfortably.

Monchengladbach -1.5 is +230, which also presents potentially good value, but the -121 to win seems like too sure of a thing to pass on.

The PICK: Monchengladbach -121

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