MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Cardinals, 2 Other Friday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Cardinals, 2 Other Friday Games article feature image

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (4) and starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50)

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Friday, headlined by Mets-Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting White Sox-Tigers (7:10 p,m. ET) and Mariners-Angels (10:07 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys found their way to Green Dot City last night, going 2-1 with their Thursday plays. Now it’s Fade The Public Friday. Historically, today is the best day to go contrarian because casual bettors are finishing their work weeks and are more apt to get down on games.

This means higher than usual ticket counts and a baseball market flooded with recreational money, leading to an elevated contrarian edge for the sharps.

After analyzing Friday’s massive 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.

>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Tigers (moved from +102 to -106)

Believe it or not, the public is backing the moribund White Sox in this AL Central clash. Fine by the wiseguys. They’re happy to take Detroit Rock City at a virtual pick’em price on its home field.

This line opened with the White Sox listed as short -115 road favorites. Despite nearly 60% of bets taking the Southsiders, the line has plummeted away from the ChiSox (-110 to -102) and toward the Tigers (+102 to -106).

What caused this sharp reverse line movement? Follow the money.

Detroit is receiving only 40% of bets but 55% of dollars, indicating wiseguy wagers in its favor. We’ve also tracked a pair of steam moves on Detroit.

This influx of smart money pushed the Tigers from slight dogs to slight favorites.

New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals 

8:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)

Average Joes take one look at Jason Vargas’ ERA (14.22) and that’s all they need to know. Hammer the over. High total be damned. But sharps aren’t taking the bait. They’re buying low on a contrarian under.

This total opened at 9. Heavy public betting (72%) pushed it up to 9.5. Once the hook was available, wiseguys got down hard on the artificially inflated under 9.5, triggering two reverse line moves that dropped the total back down to 9.

Three additional edges that wiseguy under bettors are looking to exploit:

  1. The wind is blowing in from left-center at 14-18 mph.
  2. Busch Stadium is one of the best under stadiums in Major League Baseball (unders +29.09 units since 2005).
  3. This under matches the top Bet Labs PRO system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+190.92 units since 2005).

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

10:07 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Angels (moved from -110 to -116) and Over (9 to 9.5)

Wiseguys swung and missed on the Angels last night. But they’re going back to the Halos tonight.

This AL West showdown opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -110 home favorite. Currently 70% of bets are grabbing the slight plus-money with Seattle (+102 to +106), yet the line has moved further toward the Angels (-110 to -116).

This is a classic case of sharp movement — wiseguys are loading up on the Halos (30% of bets but 62% of dollars), forcing oddsmakers to adjust the number further in their favor despite the heavy public betting on Seattle.

We tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on LAA -105, -109 and -112. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move on the road dog.

Sharps are also hitting the Over. It’s getting only 55% of bets but 83% of dollars and has moved from 9 to 9.5. We noticed three bet signals on the Over and the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 5-7 mph.

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