NASCAR at Talladega Betting Odds & Picks: 3 Longshot Bets for Sunday’s YellaWood 500 (Oct. 4)
Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
- Sunday's YellaWood 500 at Talladega marks the final superspeedway race of the 2020 season.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is priced in the middle of the pack, but Nick Giffen thinks he should be priced more like a favorite for Sunday's race.
- Giffen breaks down Stenhouse Jr. below and shares two additional longshot bets.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its final superspeedway race of the 2020 season. Superspeedway races are the most random on the Cup Series schedule. That makes evaluating performance difficult. We can use past performance on these tracks, but results and statistics from these races can be misleading.
To separate the favorites, I prefer to look at which favorites frequently challenge for the lead. For the underdogs, I like to see who is in contention at the end of stages and full races to get an idea of who may be mispriced in the market.
Three underdogs stand out as a nice value heading into the race. As race time approaches, I’ll likely add in a favorite or two as well if I can find the right value.
NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Betting Picks
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2400) to Win at Talladega
For years Stenhouse has frequently run near the front at superspeedway races. That includes this year, despite switching teams during this past off season.
In 2020, Stenhouse has finished in the top eight in four of the six stages. That includes winning the second stage of the first Talladega race. He was also the runner up in that race, losing out on the win by 0.007 seconds.
In 15 races at Talladega, Stenhouse has one win, six top-fives and nine top-10 finishes. He’s two for 31 at superspeedways in his career. He’s priced in the middle of the pack, but he should be priced more like a favorite. There’s value here down to +1600.
Tyler Reddick (+4000) to Win at Talladega
Reddick is one of those underdogs that is frequently in contention at key points in the race. Reddick won the first stage in the June race at this track. He also finished third in the opening stage of the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona, and pushed into the lead with eight laps remaining. Unfortunately, that aggressive move triggered a large crash.
The point is, he’s been able to show enough strength at these tracks to take him at this price at BetMGM.
Ryan Newman (+7000) to Win at Talladega
I liked Newman at 50-1 for the most recent superspeedway race at Daytona, so this 70-1 line at FanDuel is a dream.
Newman’s two most recent finishes at superspeedways were poor, but that lacks context. His most recent run at Daytona was solid until a late crash took him out.
Prior to those two poor finishes, Newman had four straight top-nine finishes at superspeedways. That includes a second-place finish in this race last year, and a near-win at this year’s Daytona 500 before his scary last-lap wreck.