Saturday NBA Player Prop Bets: Our Top Picks for Nikola Jokic, OG Anunoby and More (Sept. 5)
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: OG Anunoby (3).
- Reed Wallach uses the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool to identify the four best player prop bets for Saturday's NBA Playoffs action.
- Read on to find out which side he's taking on Nikola Jokic's points total, OG Anunoby's rebound total, and more.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Saturday’s player props come from both of the slate’s games:
- 6:30 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
- 9:00 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
NBA Player Prop Bets
Toronto Raptors, OG Anunoby
The Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-143)
Anunoby was the hero for Toronto in Game 3, hitting a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to prevent the Raptors from going down 0-3 in their series with the Boston Celtics. For Toronto to even the series, it will need similarly strong play from Anunoby on Saturday.
The Raptors wing played 40 minutes in Game 3 and grabbed 10 rebounds in the process. Our FantasyLabs projection has Anunoby grabbing seven rebounds, giving this prop bet a confidence level of 10. With plenty of playing time, and two strong defensive teams, I expect Anunoby to clear his low 5.5-rebound prop and would play this up to -160.
Boston Celtics, Marcus Smart
The Prop: Over 3.5 assists (-143)
Smart played 36 minutes in Boston’s Game 3 loss but did fire four assists in that time. Pair that with his 4-for-15 shooting performance, and Smart may try to distribute even more on Saturday.
Our FantasyLabs projection has Smart down for 4.6 dimes in this one. Boston’s offense relies on all players on the floor to facilitate — and with a short Celtics bench, Smart will not lose any playing time barring foul trouble.
I expect to see a more concerted effort to get Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown going in this one after a more subdued Game 3, and I’m betting on Smart’s assist total to benefit consequently.
Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic
The Prop: Under 23.5 points (+102)
Jokic’s struggles in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers were not a shock. Just two days after a 30-point Game 7, Jokic labored in his 29 minutes in Game 1, scoring 15 points on 6-for-14 shooting.
I am not convinced that we are going to see Jokic get going in the scoring column this series; yet, Jokic’s scoring prop is still obscenely high. While the Clippers defense may not be as strong as advertised, Jokic is going to have to play the role of facilitator. Denver need’s their big man to get his teammates going who can’t beat their man off the dribble, rather than trying to carry the team through scoring.
This under at plus-money is a strong play as we project Jokic for 17.8 points. I would play this down to under 21.5 (-105) to be safe.
Los Angeles Clippers, Patrick Beverley
The Prop: Over 2.5 assists (+138)
An important principle of prop betting is playing the situation rather than the number. Beverley played just 12 minutes on Thursday night in his first game back since Game 1 of the first round. The Clippers’ goal is to get their starting point guard ramped up to speed as the series progresses, so expect more minutes in line for Beverley. As always, check the FantasyLabs NBA News page for more updates on his playing time.
Beverley’s health notwithstanding, he made a big impact in his 12 minutes of playing time, including dishing out two assists. I’m going to be playing this over at any number plus-money in the hopes that Bev gets closer to 20 minutes of action in Game 4. Our numbers project Beverley for 2.7 assists, resulting in a bet confidence level of 10.