Sobel’s 3M Open Final Round Matchup Bets: Is Dylan Frittelli Poised for a Run on Sunday?
Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dylan Frittelli at Trinity Forest Golf Club.
- Jason Sobel analyzes three final-round matchups for the 2019 3M Open: Dylan Frittelli vs. Joaquin Niemann, Kevin Streelman vs. Johnson Wagner and Cameron Tringale vs. Bronson Burgoon.
BLAINE, Minn. — Two weeks ago, Chez Reavie led by six strokes entering the final round and cruised to the Travelers Championship title. Last week, Nate Lashley led by six and similarly breezed to victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This week? It’s a much different story.
Going into the final round of the 3M Open, three players are tied for the lead and 14 are within three strokes.
It looks like we’ll finally have a little drama down the stretch.
Here are my favorite matchup plays for Sunday.
Dylan Frittelli (+125) over Joaquin Niemann
Look, Niemann is an ultra-talented young player who’s built up some momentum over the past few weeks. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he gets his first win soon. It’s Frittelli, though, who could shock some people Sunday afternoon. All the numbers are in his favor.
He ranks 18th in strokes gained off the tee and first in strokes gained on approach shots, besting the field average by more than eight strokes over the first 54 holes. If he can keep up this ball-striking and roll in a few more putts, a score in the 64-range could lead to his first PGA Tour win.
Kevin Streelman (-165) -0.5 over Johnson Wagner
I really wish these odds weren’t weighed so heavily in Streelman’s favor, but they’re absolutely right, because I think this is a smash spot for him.
Wagner is fresh off posting a third-round 64 during which he made nearly everything he looked at. His impending negative regression is our positive gain with Streels, who’s been playing some incredibly inspired golf lately.
In fact, quick preview for next week: I realllly like him at the John Deere Classic.
Cameron Tringale (-125) over Bronson Burgoon
Now here’s a line that should be even bigger. Tringale has played really well recently, finishing 23rd or better in four of his past six starts. It’s taken him perhaps longer than some would’ve expected, but he seems more confident in his game with each passing day.
I think Burgoon will get there at some point, too, but right now he’s the PGA Tour’s 185th-ranked player in final-round scoring average. This feels like a solid spot to play Tringale, possibly without even much of a sweat.