Bailey’s 2019 Charles Schwab Challenge Matchup Bets: Byeong-Hun An Rebound Week?

In this piece, I'll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable matchups each week.

Let's dive into this week's action at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

All odds as of Tuesday morning.

Byeong-Hun An (-125) over Kiradech Aphibarnrat

An hasn't had the best form of late, but his long-term form is superior to Aphibarnrat, sporting a 69.1 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) compared to Aphibarnrat's 70.0, per the FantasyLabs Player Models.

Additionally, Colonial Country Club requires a strong approach game with the small size of their greens.

This is the biggest edge An has on Aphibarnrat as An is one of the best ball strikers in the field, ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his past 50 rounds.

Meanwhile, Kiradech ranks 106th and 74th, respectively. In fact, Kiradech has only gained strokes on approach twice this year. During his fifth-place finish at the Byron Nelson, he lost -0.6 strokes on approach and gained 14 (!!) strokes putting — which is hardly sustainable.

However, putting is by far An's biggest weakness, ranking 117th in Strokes Gained: Putting. If he doesn't come out on top in this matchup, I'm willing to bet that's where his downfall comes from. But I'll side with An's ball striking and approach game.

Joel Dahmen (+115) over Zach Johnson

While I don't mind Johnson in a vacuum for this tournament, Dahem is in excellent recent form, sporting a 68.2 recent Adj Rd Score, compared to 69.3 for ZJ.

Overall, ZJ has missed just three cuts this year, but he has just one top-20 finish to his name this season. Meanwhile, Dahmen hasn't missed a cut since the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he has four top-20 finishes since then.

Overall, Dahmen has just been solid over his past 24 rounds, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach and eight in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, while Johnson checks in at 18th and 32nd, respectively.

I'd bet this to +105.

Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National