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Adon’s Colonial First-Round Leader Betting Guide: Can Kramer Hickok Put on a Show?

Adon’s Colonial First-Round Leader Betting Guide: Can Kramer Hickok Put on a Show? article feature image

Ray Carlin, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kramer Hickok

  • The week after a major presents a good opportunity for first-round leader bets as the elite players should start slow.
  • Adon7x shares his FRL betting strategy for the 2019 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Golf Course.

What more needs to be said? Brooks Koepka shot out of a cannon last Thursday to secure the coveted title of First-Round Leader and I believe he ended the week on a similar high note as well.

It rarely benefits us when a heavy favorite like Brooks runs away with a tournament but this provides an important reminder to support your first-round Leader and outright winner bets with other methods of golf wagering.

Personally, I supplement all my FRLs and Outright tickets with a handful of Tournament Head-to-Head and Top 10/Top 20 wagers to hopefully keep the bankroll flowing.

Time to move on to our next stop in Fort Worth, Texas and Colonial Country Club, a classic, parkland style golf course and was one of the very first to feature Bentgrass greens in this part of the country.

The best part about betting the week after a major is that we tend to see slow starts from the top of the field as these guys do everything in their power to peak for the majors, so a natural letdown on Thursday the following week is expected.

It appears there is no clear wave advantage in store for Round 1, as the forecast calls for moderate winds and 20-30 mph gusts throughout Thursday.

As always we will be risking roughly 1 unit total to win 10 units, while the number of selections will vary week to week depending on the odds.

>> Download The Action Network App to follow all of my bets and get alerts whenever I make a pick.

Rory Sabbatini

  • Odds: 50-1 (.2u)
  • Tee time: 1:11 p.m. ET

Sabbatini is on a absolute tear right now with three straight top-20 finishes, including two Top 10s and is currently ranked 7th on tour in Round 1 scoring average.

Sabbatini was FRL at RBC Heritage last year, which is a similar par 70 classical layout, and was two strokes away from leading that event again this year.

Sabbs has been a Round 1 leader here at Colonial before and should come into this event fresh, having avoided the beast that was Bethpage Black.

Chez Reavie

  • Odds: 55-1 (.18u)
  • Tee time: 8 a.m. ET

Chez is in the first group off at 7 a.m. local time from the 10th tee so he will avoid the “Horrible Horseshoe” as he eases into his round and gets first crack at these pure Bentgrass greens.

Chez checks in one spot behind Sabbatini in Round 1 scoring average this year ranking 8th. He was tied for fourth after Thursday last week in New York and is a prior FRL of this event back in 2011.

Kevin Na

  • Odds: 65-1 (.15u)
  • Tee time: 1:33 p.m. ET

Here is the real star of the show at this event on Thursdays, Na has been First Round Leader at Colonial three times in his career, including last year when he shot 62 on Thursday.

He is seen as a grinder type but actually topped his opening round 62 with a 61 on Sunday. Na is a horse for this course and his game is suited for these shorter par 70 tracks where he has a chance to compete with the rest of the field off the tee.

Joel Dahmen

  • Odds: 65-1 (.15u)
  • Tee time: 2:39 p.m. ET

Owner of three FRL titles this calendar year, Dahmen returns to Colonial where he was T20 last year on debut.

His odds are shortening in this market due to his recent form and increased popularity, it feels like one more Dahmen Thursday will deliver a huge blow to sportsbooks as everyone seems to be fully on board.

His short game held him back last week at Bethpage but his ball-striking remained on point. If the wind blows as it is forecasted to, he will need a much improved display on, and around, the greens to contend on Sunday like he did at Wells Fargo.

Matt Jones

  • Odds: 80-1 (.12u)
  • Tee time: 1 p.m. ET

Jones enters this week ranked sixth on tour in Round 1 scoring average and will look to continue his recent form, which includes a T-5 finish down the road at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago. Jones was FRL earlier this year at the Corales Puntacana event and sat fourth after Round 1 at the Byron Nelson as well. Like Sabbatini and the three names listed below, Matt Jones did not have to take a beating up in New York and should be refreshed compared to the top half of the field.

Brian Stuard

  • Odds: 80-1 (.12u)
  • Tee time: 8:22 a.m. ET

Stuard is a frequent visitor to the top of Round 1 leaderboards on Par 70 events like Colonial, Heritage, and the Sony, where he won’t be penalized for his distance off the tee.

Stuard was one stroke behind the leader after Round 1 at the Valero Texas Open and was two shots behind the Thursday leader 2 weeks before that at Valspar. Stuard has a 16th-place and an 18th-place finish at the last two par 70 tracks he has played.

Matt Every

  • Odds: 85-1 (.12u)
  • Tee time: 1 p.m. ET

Matt Every is a legend in First Round Leader circles for his exploits a few years ago (I;m assuming he is Joel Dahmen’s inspiration).

The two-time PGA Tour winner is actually playing some very consistent golf this year for his standards and is fresh off a second-place finish two weeks ago at the Byron Nelson, where he was out-dueled by Sung Kang. Here is a fun fact that highlights Every’s prowess on Thursdays: He has been inside the top 5 after Round 1 in five of his last 10 starts.

Kramer Hickok

  • Odds: 100-1 (.1u)
  • Tee time: 2:39 p.m. ET

Kramer is a Dallas native who wasted no time putting on a show for the hometown fans two weeks ago when he shot an opening round 65 and sat two strokes back of the Round 1 leader.

He ended up finishing 17th at the Byron Nelson but his game is actually more suited for the tighter confines of Colonial this week. Kramer tees off in the last group of the day which could prove beneficial if the wind forecast has any surprises in store, and he will be grouped with fellow Longhorn graduate Doug Ghim which should make for a comfortable pairing.

Total Risk: 1.14 units
YTD: -2.1 units

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