Bailey’s 2019 RBC Canadian Open Matchup Bets: Can Webb Simpson Top Justin Thomas?
Peter Casey, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Webb Simpson
- The 2019 RBC Canadian Open begins on Thursday, June 4 at Hamilton Golf and Country Club.
- Justin Bailey used metrics from FantasyLabs to break down a matchup between Justin Thomas and Webb Simpson.
In this piece, I’ll be using the golf metrics in the FantasyLabs PGA Models as well as other golf metrics in search of potentially exploitable matchups each week.
The RBC Canadian is rather top-heavy, but there aren’t many matchups that interest me this week.
Let’s dive into this week’s action.
All odds as of Tuesday morning.
Webb Simpson (+100) over Justin Thomas
With Hamilton Country Club setting up like an accuracy and ball-strikers course, Simpson is one of the golfers I’m highest on this week. In the FantasyLabs Player Models, Simpson’s long-term metrics are slightly worse than Thomas’ (Simpson listed first):
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: 68.3 vs. 67.8
- Greens in regulation: 66.5% vs. 69.4%
- Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -1.4 vs. -1.8
However, Simpson’s LT Adj Rd Score and par-4 scoring isn’t that far off from Thomas’ marks. Additionally, while Thomas has been working his way back from his wrist injury, he seemingly struggled last week. He shot an opening-round 71 but then proceeded to shoot an 80 on Friday.
Overall, he lost -2.5 strokes on approach -3.7 strokes tee-to-green last week.
Meanwhile, Simpson is in terrific form over his past 50 rounds, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 12th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. In fact, Webb has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine tournaments in which Shotlink data is available.
Also working in his favor, Simpson ranks first in par-4 efficiency on par 4s that are between 400-450, and there are eight par 4s at Hamilton from those yardages.
Hamilton also features narrow fairways with thick rough that could punish any errant tee shots. Webb has the advantage here as well on this short, narrow track, ranking 19th in fairways gained, compared to 106th for Thomas, respectively.
I’d bet this to -110.
Good luck this week!
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National