Photo credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tommy Fleetwood
- I created a golf model optimized for the 2019 U.S. Open to identify head-to-head betting opportunities for this week's tournament.
- Below are my five favorite underdog matchup bets this week, including Tommy Fleetwood vs. Matt Kuchar.
It can be frustrating betting to-win odds when fields are as big as they are for the U.S. Open. A fun way to bet instead is with head-to-head matchup props.
Below are five of my favorite underdog (golfers getting plus money) values for this week’s U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.
Jordan Spieth (+195) over Rory McIlroy
Rory being -240 over Spieth seems like a massive overreaction to Rory winning last week. Don’t get me wrong: He’s been so freaking good this year, finishing in the top 10 in nine of his 11 tournaments. But 1) golf is often random, especially with putting, and 2) he’s missed the last three cuts at the U.S. Open and he’s never made a cut at any Pebble event.
Spieth, meanwhile, has won a Pebble Pro-Am and, most importantly, he’s really trending back to his early-career form right now, highlighted by three straight top 10s starting with the PGA Championship. He’s back to being the world’s best putter, and his weakness — accuracy off the tee — could be negated by not having to go driver as often.
Rory should absolutely be favored in this matchup given his form this year, but not at -240. I’ll bet Spieth at these high plus odds. I’d bet it to +150.