Freedman’s Favorite Valero Texas Open Matchup: Martin Kaymer vs. Nick Taylor

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

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2019 Year-to-Date Record

451-347-21, +70.65 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 229-172-4, +33.83 Units
• NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
• MLB: 12-12-1, -1.88 Units
• Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
• NASCAR: 5-8-0, -1.70 Units
• NCAAB: 91-52-8, +26.95 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
• Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Valero Texas Open Matchup: Martin Kaymer vs. Nick Taylor

• Martin Kaymer: +135
• Nick Taylor: -155

It's the week before the Masters, and here I am talking about Martin Kaymer and Nick Taylor. It must be time for the Valero Texas Open, amirite?

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a tough course that plays long at 7,435 yards, which theoretically favors Kaymer, who has the superior long-term driving distance (294.1 yards vs. 291.8).

In fact, Kaymer is equal or superior to Taylor in a number of predictive data points in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

• Long-term adjusted round score: 70.3 vs. 70.3
• Long-term greens in regulation: 67.7% vs. 66.4%
• Long-term cut rate: 35% vs. 40%
• DraftKings salary: $7,200 vs. $7,200
• FanDuel salary: $8,800 vs. $8,700

I'm not saying that Kaymer is clearly the better golfer: Taylor, for instance, has the superior long-term scoring on par 4s (1.7 vs. 2.2) and par 5s (-4.2 vs. -3.6).

Taylor also has the edge in recent form, sporting the significantly better adjusted round score over the past six weeks (68.1 vs. 69.5).

But Kaymer still has the better short-term numbers off the tee.

• Driving distance: 288.7 vs. 287.0
• Driving accuracy: 63.1% vs. 62.5%

To me, this matchup looks much closer to a coin flip than the odds imply, and I'd bet on Kaymer down to +110.

The Pick: Kaymer (+135)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.