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Freedman’s Favorite Valero Texas Open Matchup: Martin Kaymer vs. Nick Taylor


Reinhold Matay, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Martin Kaymer

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He looks at the Valero Texas Open (Thu., April 4) and the head-to-head matchup between Martin Kaymer & Nick Taylor.

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

451-347-21, +70.65 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 229-172-4, +33.83 Units
  • NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
  • MLB: 12-12-1, -1.88 Units
  • Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
  • NASCAR: 5-8-0, -1.70 Units
  • NCAAB: 91-52-8, +26.95 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite Valero Texas Open Matchup: Martin Kaymer vs. Nick Taylor

  • Martin Kaymer: +135
  • Nick Taylor: -155

It’s the week before the Masters, and here I am talking about Martin Kaymer and Nick Taylor. It must be time for the Valero Texas Open, amirite?

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a tough course that plays long at 7,435 yards, which theoretically favors Kaymer, who has the superior long-term driving distance (294.1 yards vs. 291.8).

In fact, Kaymer is equal or superior to Taylor in a number of predictive data points in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-term adjusted round score: 70.3 vs. 70.3
  • Long-term greens in regulation: 67.7% vs. 66.4%
  • Long-term cut rate: 35% vs. 40%
  • DraftKings salary: $7,200 vs. $7,200
  • FanDuel salary: $8,800 vs. $8,700

I’m not saying that Kaymer is clearly the better golfer: Taylor, for instance, has the superior long-term scoring on par 4s (1.7 vs. 2.2) and par 5s (-4.2 vs. -3.6).

Taylor also has the edge in recent form, sporting the significantly better adjusted round score over the past six weeks (68.1 vs. 69.5).

But Kaymer still has the better short-term numbers off the tee.

  • Driving distance: 288.7 vs. 287.0
  • Driving accuracy: 63.1% vs. 62.5%

To me, this matchup looks much closer to a coin flip than the odds imply, and I’d bet on Kaymer down to +110.

The Pick: Kaymer (+135)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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