Perry’s Wells Fargo Championship Betting Guide: Loading Up on Longshots
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Keith Mitchell.
- Rory McIlroy (6-1 betting odds) enters the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship as the clear favorite.
- Joshua Perry is staying away from the top of the board, though, and focusing on seven players with odds of 90-1 or better to win.
Not much went well at the Zurich Classic. We had a couple teams finish in the top five but neither really threatened Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer.
We’ll move on to the bombers’ paradise at Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship.
The stars have fared well here in recent years with Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler picking up victories in the past six years.
But we’ve also had a couple of 500-1 longshots come out of nowhere in James Hahn and Derek Ernst.
Driving distance and par-5 scoring have usually been strengths of those coming out on top.
Quail Hollow — a 7,600-yard, par-72 track — has played host to the event every year expect in 2017 when it held the PGA Championship won by the aforementioned Thomas.
The course is known for it’s closing three-hole stretch called the Green Mile. It plays nearly a shot over par on average and each of the holes were among the 50 most difficult on tour in 2018.
It’s another one of those courses where going out and posting a number ahead of the leaders can prove to be enough to win. With the pressure of trying to close out a tournament Sunday afternoon, this closing test is as difficult as we see all year.
We have a solid field led by Rory McIlroy, who is the favorite at +600. Defending champ Jason Day is next at +1000 with Rickie Fowler and Justin Rose right behind at +1100.
In that 20-1 range, we have the next tier of stars with Sergio Garcia, Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey and Phil Mickelson all set to make an appearance.
McIlroy, Fowler and Day all have wins here, so it’s going to be really difficult to avoid one of them coming out of top.
I do like Garcia and Matsuyama among that next group, but am waiting for a slightly better number. They’ll be two players I’ll probably look to add live if they have a slower start in the first round.
The Mid Tier
I’m starting way down the board this week with more of a strategy of playing long hitters and finding top 10s and 20s when they become available.
If you’d want to look a players with a better shot at winning outright, Gary Woodland, Jason Kokrak and Byeong Hun An would all interest me. But I’m going a different direction for this event.
First up is Keith Mitchell at +9000. We’ve already hit Mitchell once this year at the Honda Classic, but this was an event I had highlighted for him before the start of the season. He’s a great ball-striker and he ranks in the top 20 in scoring on par 5s.
We’ll also back two more bombers in Jhonattan Vegas and Luke List at +9500. Vegas hasn’t had much success here, but he’s in good form so far this year with top 30s in his past five starts. List finished ninth here last year and has two top 20s to go along with a couple missed cuts. He’s another guy who hits it a mile, and if the putter is even close to field average, he’ll be in contention.
As I mentioned earlier, we’ve had two 500-1 winners here in the past six years. We’ve also had a lot of close calls with longshots like Aaron Wise, David Lynn and Roberto Castro coming in second in that same time frame.
I’m firing at four guys in this range, starting with Trey Mullinax at +11750. His game is perfect for this course. He was in the final group of the team event last Sunday, and I expect to see some of that form carry over.
I’ll also back a couple rookies here in Wyndham Clark at +16000 and Cameron Champ at +17500. Clark is fourth in driving distance and 11th in par-5 scoring this year.
Much like Mitchell, Clark and Champ are two players who I’ve been eyeing for this course for a while. Champ has been off his game, but the number is hitting rock bottom as we enter a track that should suit him.
Lastly, we’ll go way down the board with Seth Reeves at +40000. Everything but the tee ball has struggled this season, but he’s 11th in driving distance and should have a good number for a top 20 play.
Wells Fargo Championship Card
- Keith Mitchell +9000/+700 Top 10 (.37/.5 units)
- Jhonattan Vegas +9500/+600 Top 10 (.35/.5 units)
- Luke List +9500/+650 Top 10 (.35/.5 units)
- Trey Mullinax +11750/+900 Top 10 (.28/.5 units)
- Wyndham Clark +16000/+650 Top 20 (.21/.5 units)
- Cameron Champ +17500/+550 Top 20 (.19/.5 units)
- Seth Reeves +40000/+1600 Top 20 (.09/.5 units)
Total Stake: 5.34 units
Season: -15.49 Units