Charles Schwab Round 4 Betting Odds and Preview: Which Contenders Have the Most Value Heading into Sunday?
Tom Pennington, Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Thomas
In the final round of last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, Kevin Na posted a 4-under 66 to win.
Two years ago, eventual winner Justin Rose carded a 64 on Sunday. The year before that, Kevin Kisner needed a 66.
Point is, you’ve never been able to tread water and win this tournament.
That’s never been more relevant, though, than it probably will be this year, with Xander Schauffele leading at 13-under, five others one strokes back, two more two shots back and a half-dozen others just three strokes off the pace.
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With so many players packed on the leaderboard – and so many big-time players, too – it’s going to take a low one to pull out this title.
Based on live odds entering the final round, here are my favorite bets – not necessarily my ranking of players who can win, but my favorite wagers based on current value — from 1-15 on the current list.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Xander Schauffele (-13) (+350, $10 bet wins $35)
The tourney leader and current favorite is a guy I’ve written about in my R2 and R3 preview pieces this week, each time believing that he’d be the guy to chase.
Now that he’s in front, I still think odds of 3.5/1 are pretty good for a player who tends to play his best golf against the stiffest competition.
Justin Thomas (-12) (+500)
The second-lowest option on the board is also my second-favorite, based largely on the fact that Thomas hasn’t looked like he’s had his A-game yet this week, yet still remains just one stroke off the lead.
In his maiden tourney at Colonial, if he can improve just a little bit, this could be his tourney to lose.
Rory McIlroy (-10) (+1400)
Following a disappointing third round that was a half-dozen strokes higher than his second-round 63, McIlroy appeared fairly ordinary on Saturday, but there’s no reason to think he can’t go low again Sunday.
In fact, if you were blindly offered the world’s best player at 14/1 and just three shots back going into the final round, you’d almost always take it. It’s hard to ignore this one.
Daniel Berger (-11) (+2000)
I’m not sure I necessarily give Berger the third-best chances of winning this tourney Sunday, but at this number, I like his chances.
Of those who made the cut, he ranks second in strokes gained on approach shots, which is such an important metric around this golf course.
Patrick Reed (-10) (+2200)
Same deal here as Berger – it’s not that Reed’s chances to win are fourth-best of those in contention, it’s that his number is so lofty that he still owns plenty of value entering the final round.
It’s hardly out of the realm of possibility that he fires a second straight 63 to claim this title.
Jordan Spieth (-12) (+600)
Sunday marks 1,057 days since Spieth’s last victory, which famously occurred at Royal Birkdale when he won the Open Championship.
No player has needed a three-month in-season break like Spieth, who is capitalizing so far and looks like a much improved player already.
Abraham Ancer (-10) (+4000)
Corey Conners (-10) (+6600)
Look, we all understand that this is a star-studded leaderboard and it’s going to be difficult for someone to win from behind, but an above-average ball-striker like each of these two, at such an inflated number while just three shots off the lead, screams value.
Even if you’re betting a player with lower odds, it’s too tempting to completely ignore either of these guys.
Collin Morikawa (-12) (+750)
The stats tell us that Morikawa has been second-best in the field from tee-to-green this week, behind only Schauffele, and the naked eye confirms that number, as every time we look at the TV screen, it seems like the super soph is dialing in a perfect approach shot.
Bryson DeChambeau (-10) (+2000)
Even before the schedule was suspended, I was firmly entrenched in the camp which believed Bryson was on the verge of big things this year. Those big things, by the way, around just his biceps and lats.
The new Incredible Bulk has found length that will help him on plenty of courses, but perhaps not Colonial, which makes his title run even more impressive.
Gary Woodland (-12) (+800)
It’s not that I don’t think Woodland can win or don’t think he’s worthy of this number, it’s just that I don’t see as much value on him as some of the other contenders.
Justin Rose (-10) (+2800)
It was a rough finish for Rose on Saturday, as he played the final four holes in 2-over. I’m still not totally sold on him being an immediate champion after switching clubs during the shutdown, which probably accounts for his placement on this list.
Even so, 28/1 is at least a price worth considering.
Branden Grace (-12) (+1400)
There will be some very happy campers if Grace, who was 125/1 or so pre-tournament can replicate his 2016 win at Harbour Town on a related course this week.
Those were some heady early-week bets, but there is simply too much value elsewhere to place him higher on this list entering the final round.
Harold Varner III (-11) (+2800)
This one is more a case of, I’ll believe it when I see it. Varner has often gotten into contention over the years, only to fade a bit on the weekend.
He had an opportunity to be in the driver’s seat going into the final round, but the fact that he dropped a few places on the leaderboard should only enhance our rationale that we’ll play this one cautiously until he process he can win.
J.T. Poston (-9) (+10000)
The lone player at 9-under and four shots off the lead, it might take something in the 62 range for Poston to win this tourney.
That said, crazier things have happened and 100/1 for a player at this spot on the board is never a terrible play.