Golf Picks: Which Longshots Could Provide Value At Rocket Mortgage

Credit:

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Hadwin

Jul 01, 2020, 03:30 PM EDT
  • Josh Perry breaks down this week's PGA Tour field for the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit.
  • Find out why Scott Stallings and Wesley Bryan are longshots worth betting at 100-1 odds or longer.

Dustin Johnson did his best to make the back nine exciting at the Travelers and, despite a few mistakes from the former World No. 1, our in-play addition, Kevin Streelman, fell a shot short.

We now move on to Detroit Golf Club for the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Considering this is just the second-ever Rocket Mortgage and that the first one was won by Nate Lashley as an alternate entry that was added to the field on Wednesday and didn’t even have pre-tournament odds, this will likely be one of the toughest events of the season to project.

Lashley caused all sorts of carnage with his performance. He killed all first-round leader cards with a 63 on Thursday and then proceeded to go wire-to-wire to win at 25-under.

That’s golf.

The Course

Detroit Golf Club measures out to 7,340 yards for a par 72. The Donald Ross design didn’t put up much of fight in the first year of the event, but the rough is supposed to be a little longer this year. Still, unless weather plays a factor, 20-under par will likely be the requirement to win the title.

Last year’s leaderboard showed that you didn’t need to bomb the ball to play well. Distance is always an advantage, but Lashley isn’t very long by tour standards and he was joined by the likes of Rory Sabbatini, Ted Potter Jr., Brian Stuard and Brandt Snedeker inside the top 10.

This week will require a strong approach game coupled with a hot putter to capitalize on those birdie chances.

The Favorites

Most of the big names are taking the week off, so it’s Bryson DeChambeau who opened as a clear favorite at +700. Webb Simpson is back this week after withdrawing from the Travelers and is next in line at +1100.

Tyrrell Hatton and Patrick Reed are both around +1600. Hatton was my pick from this group, but I wanted something in the +2000 range, so I’ll keep an eye on him during the tournament and see if his number dips.

We remember his win on a tough Bay Hill, but in Europe, all his victories have come in birdie fests where he needed to get to at least 20-under par.

Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland and Sungjae Im close out the top of the board and are all between +2000 and +3000.

It’s hard to think about anyone here except Hovland given recent form, but I’ll pass across the board.

The Mid-Tier

I’ll start my card in this range with Kevin Na (+4000). Na was fifth last week and has a similar profile to a lot of the players who had success here in 2019. If it’s an iron contest where a hot putter can win, then Na is decent value in this range.

Na’s price is shrinking around the market, so be sure to shop for the best number because I wouldn’t dip below +4000 on Na.

Pick: Kevin Na +4000

Bet Now at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

I’m also going to go with Adam Hadwin at +7000. Similarly to Na, Hadwin is at his best in putting contests where a strong approach game is required. The 32-year-old Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan native hasn’t been in contention for a while but he did make back-to-back cuts before taking last week off.

I would not go much lower than +6600 on Hadwin this week.

Pick: Adam Hadwin +7000

Bet Now at FanDuel

NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

The Longshot

I’m targeting a pair of triple-digit odds, starting with Scott Stallings at +11000 ($10 bet wins $1,100).

Stallings is coming off a top-10 finish at TPC River Highlands and was a live add for me after the opening round and he continued the solid play for the rest of the week.

In a field without as many marquee names, I’ll go back to him again and see if he can continue his good play. Stallings should be in the triple-digits at most places, so I wouldn’t dip below 100-1.

Pick: Scott Stallings +11000

Lastly, I’ll take a flier on Wesley Bryan at +22500. Bryan is back after an injury and led the field in approach last week. The driver will always be a weakness for him, but if that approach game carries over and he gets a hot putter this week, he’ll definitely be a threat to get inside that top 20 and potentially contend.

Bryan will be 175-1 at a lot of books, but I wouldn’t go below that.

Pick: Wesley Bryan +22500

Bet Now at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

This is another light betting card for me, but I’ll be looking to add to it after Round 1 if the opportunity arises.

Hatton will be the primary guy I’m monitoring, but we’ll keep an eye out for anyone who really has that iron game dialed in this week.

The Rocket Mortgage Card

  • Kevin Na +4000 (.83 units)
  • Adam Hadwin +7000 (.48 units)
  • Scott Stallings +11000 (.3 units)
  • Wesley Bryan +22500 (.19 units)
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