2021 RSM Classic Odds & Best Bets: 7 Picks at Sea Island
Getty Images. Pictured: Denny McCarthy (left) and Justin Rose.
And then there was one tournament left in the PGA TOUR’s fall swing.
There will be two more in December, but the RSM Classic is the most noteworthy event remaining in 2021. A strong field, headlined by Ryder Cup winners Scottie Scheffler and Harris English, as well as Webb Simpson and Louis Oosthuizen, are set to compete in Sea Island, Ga.
FedEx Cup points that are earned now could be hugely valuable next August come playoff time, and Jason Kokrak joined the ranks of fall winners last week in Houston.
Here are our best bets for the RSM, including outright winners, props and more.
2021 RSM Classic Odds
Click here to see the full odds board as of Monday via DraftKings
|Charles Howell III||+6000|
|Dawie Van Der Walt||+30000|
|Davis Love III||+100000|
Denny McCarthy — Top 20 (+450)
Jason Sobel: Over the past few years, McCarthy has earned a reputation as one of the game’s best putters, especially on Bermuda surfaces. If this past Sunday was any indication, he’s ready to show off even more than usual with that short game. In the final round of the Houston Open, McCarthy gained 3.04 strokes around the greens and 2.89 strokes on the greens – a combination which can turn some mediocre ball-striking into an impressive overall score.
There are plenty of players about whom we often marvel at their iron play and wince at the short game. McCarthy is the exact opposite; if we get just something a little above field average from tee to green, he has a great chance to contend this week, but I’ll still take a cautious approach on a top-20 at a juicy price.
Denny McCarthy (+11000)
Chris Murphy: In a tournament that can become a putting contest, I will happily turn to one of the best Bermuda putters on TOUR in Denny McCarthy. He ranks in the top five in this field in putting on Bermuda grass greens no matter how far out you want to take it. He’s simply one of the best in the game at rolling it on the greens he will see this week on Sea Island, and he comes in with some form in his game.
I was on McCarthy last week for a top-10 finish, which really hurt as he fell one stroke short and finished T-11. This wasn’t your typical scenario of falling short though as McCarthy needed a field best final round to climb into that position. His 6-under 64 was one of the best scores of the entire week, and he did it with sharp play tee to green and a hot putter, which gained over two strokes in that final round.
I am looking for McCarthy to roll that form into this week in Georgia at a place he has played well historically, including a T-8 finish a couple of years ago. I will be betting McCarthy more heavily in the placing markets this week, but he’s worth a sprinkle to win at this number, as well.
Justin Rose (+6600)
Matt Vincenzi: Justin Rose may not be having his best few years on TOUR, but if there is one thing he can still do, it’s take advantage of a short Bermuda track. When analyzing his past 50, 36, and 24 rounds; he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on par-70 layouts under 7,200 yards that feature Bermuda grass greens. Regardless of time frame, there is no denying that this type of course is the ideal fit for the 41-year-old.
Although he missed the cut in his only previous start at the course, Rose does have some success at similar courses. I am also willing to chalk up his poor performance last year due to the event being held the week after The Masters, where he finished 23rd.
The Englishman doesn’t play often on the PGA TOUR, but he always shows up to the events that he knows he will be able to compete in. Back in August, Rose played in the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club and finished 10th despite being in some very shaky form overall.
Rose arrives at Sea Island this week in similar form, but there is no doubt that this is a course where he can find himself in contention on Sunday.
Alex Smalley — Top 20 (+470)
Landon Silinsky: Smalley has very much looked the part during his brief stint on the PGA TOUR this season, having made four of five cuts including back-to-back top-15 finishes in Bermuda and Houston. Last week at Memorial Park was especially impressive, as he gained over 1.2 strokes on approach both Saturday and Sunday, which has shown to be a big-boy course.
Albeit over a small sample (14 rounds) Smalley has putted extremely well on Bermuda, gaining about 0.4 strokes per round on the field. The 25-year old appears to be the real deal and hardly anyone knows how good he is just yet.
Patton Kizzire — Top 40 (+210)
Rob Bolton: With wind all but certain to hurl a 1-iron into the middle of a rotation of two courses, my plan is simple. I want a guy who’s among the 78 looping Plantation on Thursday because scores in relation to par are projected rise on it potentially exponentially as compared to Seaside on Friday.
This has me limping into the props for a top 40. I’d like to at least double the kickback to pay off the approach, and I’d like to ride a veteran with success in the wind. If he’s considered connected to Sea Island in some way, that’s a bonus.
I couldn’t find an attractive selection at DraftKings longer than +170, which is Kizzire’s value on that board, but there’s a small handful that qualifiers at FanDuel.
The 10-year Sea Island resident checks every box on my list of priorities, and I already identified him as one of my five sleepers at PGATOUR.com.
Kizzire is in his eighth appearance at Sea Island, so nothing will surprise him this week. In fact, he should be emboldened because of his experience in all conditions in the home game. He also made the cut in each of the last four editions with a pair of top-15s contributing.
You know me, I looked at the parlays at BetMGM, but with the roof open to the elements, selecting one guy to finish inside top quarter of the field is smarter than leaning on three just to cash.
Russell Henley (+2800)
Josh Perry: Henley is the top player on the board for me this week. Bermuda is by far his best putting surface, and the irons have been in solid shape for about five months now. He’s also one of many players with strong local ties, having been born in Georgia and attending UGA.
Russell Henley (+2800)
Bryan Berryman: Henley grades out as the second-best player in my model for this week, and for good reason. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 12 rounds and second over the last 24 rounds in this field. Henley has also gained at least 4.6 strokes tee-to-green in eight of his last nine tracked events and has made 10 of his last 11 cuts.
The putter has been holding Henley back of late, but he did manage to gain 3.7 strokes putting last week on his way to a seventh-place finish. On top of it all, he has great history at this event with three top-10 finishes in his last six starts.
On a second shot golf course that requires accuracy off the tee, I can’t think of a better fit.