PGA Championship 2022: Updated Odds & Picks for Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, More

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We’ve reached the PGA Championship, and everything is shaping up for a great week at Southern Hills Country Club.

The course, a par-70 that measures almost 7,600 yards, is getting rave reviews. It’s obviously a beast in terms of length, and the green will present a difficult test for players on approach.

Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are either tied or barely separated at the top of most odds boards. The world No. 1 already claimed golf’s first major of the year and has won four times, although Rahm was victorious in his last start.

The rest of the field is elite. We’re missing Phil Mickelson, but Tiger Woods is back, set to tee it up this week in Tulsa.

With stellar fields like this, there are always players with bigger odds than usual. Our GolfBet staff has scoured the odds board and picked its favorite bets for the week.

Check out their best bets for the 2022 PGA Championship below.

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2022 PGA Championship Picks

Rory McIlroy — Top 5 (+450)

Jason Sobel: Look, I have no idea whether McIlroy will post another one of his patented “back-door” top-five finishes or he’ll take the more traditional “front-door” route, but I do expect him to be right there in the mix at the end of this one.

(For those who haven’t read my take on Rory and “back-door top-fives” in previous weeks, I think it’s one of the silliest narratives around. Players are supposed to play their best in the final round when it matters the most. I’d rather have money on a guy who does that and “back-doors” his way into strong finishes than the alternative, which I suppose is a guy who chokes away a lead at the end and claims what I suppose should be called a “front-door top-five” instead.)

He proved at both the Masters and the Wells Fargo that when his game is clicking, it still might be better than anyone else’s best stuff. The problem, of course, is that he’s been going through these brief periods during tournament weeks when he doesn’t have anything close to his best stuff. If he can get off to a hot start at this one, watch out.

I really think Rory could win one of these by a half-dozen strokes at some point. Even if he doesn’t, though, nobody knows how to play his best golf late in the week like him, so expect another leaderboard-rising round on Sunday.

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Tony Finau — Top 10 (+650)

Chris Murphy: I was ready to go all in on my preseason prediction of Tony Finau winning a major and double down on it this week at the PGA Championship – until I saw his updated odds on DraftKings. They dropped him from +8000 to +5000, and I’m less bullish on that number as a best bet. I’ll still take the value they are offering at +650 for a top-10 since I think this course could be right up his alley, and I think it’s worth sprinkle for an outright win.

Finau has finally turned the corner a bit from his issues earlier in the year, having cured his issues around the green. I know he lost a bunch of strokes, 7.7 to be exact, at the Wells Fargo, but that slop-fest is as worthy of throwing out as THE PLAYERS was back in March.

He also has a tendency to jump back with great approach weeks in the rare times he is off with that part of his game, including the last time he lost seven shots on approach and bounced back with 7.5 gained in that category at the 2020 PGA.

When I add in the fact that Bentgrass is by far his best putting surface, this course seems to set up really well for Finau to find himself in contention over the weekend.

Justin Thomas +1600

Matt Vincenzi: It’s no secret that Justin Thomas needs another major championship. When he won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, many people thought that it would be the first of many. While that still may come to fruition, Thomas would be the first to tell you that his five year major drought is unacceptable and that he expects more from himself. The 29-year-old has had some decent finishes in majors, but he hasn’t truly contended in one since that 2017 victory.

At the Masters, Thomas got off to an inexplicably poor start. He shot an open round 76, but bounced back to shoot 67 on Friday and eventually climbed his way back to finish in a tie for 8th place. His weekend charge at Augusta should give “JT” some positive momentum going into the PGA Championship.

Southern Hills should prove itself to be a second-shot golf course. These types of courses are typically a great fit for Thomas because he is one of the best iron players in the world. Before JT wins, he typically shows some excellent performances in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach leading into the event. His approach play is most definitely trending in the right direction as he gained 7.4 strokes at Valspar, 5.4 strokes at The Masters, and 4.6 strokes at RBC Heritage.

Thomas is a great iron and wind player, making Southern Hills an ideal spot for him to finally capture his second major championship.

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Max Homa +6600

Joshua Perry: Homa was added to my card at +9000 when he got into contention at Wells Fargo, but I still like him here, with the best number at BetMGM. you can also get him at 60-1 at PointsBet.

Homa's ball striking has been dialed in for a few months now, gaining 10 strokes in his win at the Wells Fargo two weeks ago. He's got five other finishes inside the top 20 in 2022 and picked up a win during the fall, as well.

With three victories now in the past 15 months, Homa is becoming one of the better players in the game when he gets near the top of the leaderboard. We haven't seen him do it yet in a field of this caliber, but he's won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, which have held majors in the past. That shows that Homa is capable of getting it done at these kinds of venues.

Jordan Spieth +2000

Derek Farnsworth: I’m eating the Spieth chalk this week and I hope it tastes a lot better than the last time, which was only a month ago at the Masters. He bounced back after that missed cut with a win at the RBC Heritage (despite losing 2.5 strokes putting) and then he finished second at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson.

When he was at his best, he was elite with his irons and had the best short game on TOUR. All of a sudden, he is consistently gaining strokes off the tee. If we look at the numbers from 2022, there are only three golfers that are in the top 35 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and bogey avoidance. Spoiler alert: Spieth is one of them.

He’s looking for the career grand slam, and I like his chances to be in the mix on Sunday. The best number for Spieth can be found at BetMGM, as of Tuesday night.

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Shane Lowry +3500

Landon Silinsky: Lowry is on some type of roll right now, having finished no worse than T13 in any of his past five starts, including three top-three finishes in that stretch. We know the former Open Champion thrives in nasty conditions, so he should be right in his element this week with the winds in Tulsa are expected to be nasty.

The Irishman has all facets of his game clicking right now, ranking No. 1 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in Putting, both over his previous 16 rounds in this field. Lowry has three top-12 finishes at the PGA Championship in his past four starts and is absolutely on the short list of contenders this week.

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Bryan Berryman: Southern Hills will be a difficult test of golf for some of the game’s best players this week. With sustained winds forecasted around 15-20 mph for most of the tournament, it’s going to take excellence in all facets of the game to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday evening.

I’m targeting golfers with complete all-around games for my card this week, and few fit that description better than Patrick Cantlay.

Over the last 50 rounds, Cantlay is the only player in this field who ranks top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Around the Green and Putting. That combination of elite skills across the entire bag has been fully on display this year, with six top-10 finishes in nine total starts.

In his most recent stroke play event, he gained 8.7 strokes on approach en route to a second-place finish at the RBC Heritage in mid-April. That performance was followed up with a win at the Zurich Classic team event alongside Xander Schauffele the following week.

Cantlay is absolutely dialed in right now and is set up perfectly to take on the challenge that Southern Hills will present this week. Although a major championship victory has eluded him to this point in his career, it seems like a matter of “when” and not “if” for Cantlay; who has been knocking on the door of elite status for some time now. I think he gets his first major championship victory this weekend in Tulsa.

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