Updated RBC Canadian Open 2022 Odds & 6 Picks for Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, More

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For the first time in three years, the PGA TOUR is north of the border.

Five of the world’s top-10 players are in Ontario for the RBC Canadian Open, including defending champion (from 2019) Rory McIlroy. The first two major winners of 2022 are atop the odds board, with Scottie Scheffler slightly favored over Justin Thomas.

St. George’s Golf & Country Club is a short track, but it looks like it will present a stiff test to players ahead of the US Open. Expect the roughs to be penalizing and greens to be fast.

Our staff of GolfBet writers have scoured the odds board this week, which seems a little top heavy without much depth.

They’re identified their favorite betting picks for the week. Check them out below.

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Brendon Todd — Top 10 (+700)

Jason Sobel: Todd is like the Halley’s Comet of the PGA TOUR, which isn’t to suggest he only comes around every 76 years. When he does show up, though, you don’t want to miss it.

Back in late 2019, he turned into the best player in the world for a month-long stretch with two wins and a fourth-place finish, rising from outside the top-500 to 72nd before Thanksgiving dinner was served. Since then, he didn’t have a single top-five finish … until two weeks ago, when he showed up on the Charles Schwab leaderboard to the tune of a third-place result.

There aren’t too many options where we can focus on a short-course specialist these days, but Todd fits this role perfectly, ranking 201st in driving distance and fifth in driving accuracy this season.

Sam Burns — Top 5 (+450)

Chris Murphy: I’m copping out a bit here since I can’t quite figure out where I want to bite the bullet at the top this week. I have a lot more interest in taking one or two of the top names than I do throwing darts at the bottom of this field that drops off in a hurry.

Sam Burns is one of the three or four at the top that I would like to consider for an outright, but with his odds in the teens I probably won’t get there. I did find some decent value in this top 5 placement on FanDuel.

Burns has shown to have a strong upside with his three wins this season and three more top-10 finishes. He did some of that damage during the fall swing and if you take out some of the elites at the top of this field, this one isn’t much different than what we see in the fall.

We tend to devalue players after a win despite them clearly being in great form to achieve that victory, and in two of his three wins on TOUR he has registered a top-14 finish, including a runner-up.

As odd as it sounds, I think Burns would be more popular this week if he didn’t win at the Charles Schwab. The course fit seems to be right up his alley, where his off the tee struggles are mitigated and he can take advantage of his strong approach and putting game.

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Matt Fitzpatrick +2000

Matt Vincenzi: Last week, Matt Fitzpatrick missed the cut on the number at the Memorial. Some people may see the dreaded "MC" when checking in on his recent form and be scared off, but not all missed cuts can be treated the same.

In Fitzpatrick's case, it was an extreme putting anomaly that was responsible for his uncharacteristic short week. The Englishman lost a whopping 7.6 strokes putting in two rounds, making it the worst putting performance of his career (in only two rounds!). There were no issues with the rest of his game, as he gained 6.5 strokes from tee to green.

Prior to the Memorial, Fitzpatrick had been playing excellent golf. In his past ten starts, the 27-year-old has seven top-15 finishes. Additionally, the last time Fitz missed a cut was at the RBC Heritage. He went on to finish runner-up at the Wells Fargo the following week.
St. George's should be a perfect fit for Fitzpatrick.

Precision will be paramount at this golf course, both off the tee and on approach. Fairways are tree lined and tight, which is the type of setup that Fitzpatrick has thrived on throughout his career. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and has the perfect combination of distance and accuracy to make this track a lot more manageable.

It's no secret that Fitzpatrick has had a difficult time winning on the PGA TOUR. Perhaps leaving the United States for an event north of the border is just what he needs to get over the hump.

Rory McIlroy — Top 10 (+120)

Landon Silinsky: McIlroy is the defending champion at this event, which was played on a different course three years ago, but it’s still noteworthy. He finished a ho-hum 18th at the Memorial, where he lost strokes with his irons on both Saturday and Sunday. Before that, the Irishman was on quite the run, posting a runner-up at Augusta, followed by a T5 and T8 at the Wells Fargo and PGA Championship.

McIlroy is the class of this field and ranks No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking and No. 2 in Strokes Gained: Total both over his previous 48 rounds. He would not show up to Canada one week after playing Memorial with the U.S Open a week later if he did not intend to give it his all.

Outside of the very top of the board, this field is extremely mediocre. I believe Rory could sleepwalk his way to a top 10 here, so I’ll gladly take plus money.

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Chris Kirk +5000

Derek Farnsworth: I was ready to write up Patrick Reed at +6500, but that number is no longer available — nor is Reed. Instead, I’ll pivot to Chris Kirk.

We don’t think of Kirk as being an elite driver of the ball, but he has gained strokes off the tee in 14 straight events. While he lost on approach last week at Muirfield Village, he had gained on approach in each of his previous 10 starts.

On top of that, he’s one of the best on TOUR around the green. He’s been a top-10 machine this season, and it would be a great story to see him back in the winner’s circle after everything he’s gone through the last few years.

I love the course fit, I love the way his game is trending, and I love the +5000 odds. Since we don’t have each ways in the US, I am backing up this bet with a top five on FanDuel at +950.

Matt Fitzpatrick — Top 20 (-115)

Bryan Berryman: From a tee-to-green perspective, Fitzpatrick came through as predicted last week at Memorial. He hit over 70% of his fairways and ranked seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green through the first two rounds.

Unfortunately, he paired his wonderful tee to green play with his worst putting performance of his entire career, losing 7.5 strokes on the greens en route to a missed cut.

This week, St. George’s will be set up in a relatively similar fashion. While it won’t play as long as Muirfield Village, there are many reports that the course is being set up as a “US Open prep” course given where it has landed on the PGA TOUR schedule. That will mean fast greens and thick rough awaiting any wayward tee shots, placing a premium on accuracy from tee to green.

This sets up perfectly for Fitzpatrick, who ranks first in this field in Bogey Avoidance, while also ranking  top 30 in both Fairways Gained and Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds. He’s a solid and reliable player from tee to green, who has finished in the top 20 in seven out of his 10 total starts this year. Assuming his putting performance last week was an anomaly, I love his chances of cracking the top 20 this week.

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