Action Network golf guru Colin Davy built a Masters-specific model that takes into account all the relevant metrics for a player: Overall strokes per round, adjusted for playing conditions and strength of field, plus player history at Augusta and weather conditions. That model powers our Masters Mega Guide, which you should definitely check out. And it’s also able to predict what an accurate matchup prop line should be.
Thankfully a ton of sites around the industry have provided us with loads of Masters props to bet. In this piece, I’m looking at more 70 matchup props from 5Dimes. Lines are current as of Tuesday evening.
I’m posting a table at the bottom of the piece with each listed prop from 5Dimes, Colin’s predicted line, and the difference between the two. But before that, let me go deeper on a few that really stand out per our data.
All lines via 5dimes as of Tuesday night.
Real line: Jordan Spieth (-120) vs. Justin Thomas (+100)
Model line: Jordan Spieth (+211) vs. Justin Thomas (-211)
Model pick: Justin Thomas +100
This first prop is probably quite surprising given Spieth’s utter domination at Augusta in his career — he’s finished 11th, second, first, and second in his four visits — and Thomas’ middling history (22nd and 39th in his two appearances). This will be the ultimate test of Jordan’s elite course history at Augusta, however, as these players have had very different past six months. JT has been the best golfer in the world and has three straight top-10s and is coming off a beautiful showing in Match Play two weeks ago. Spieth, on the other hand, had been having a somewhat disappointing season prior to a third-place finish last week at the Houston Open. If his ball-striking in that one — he hit 80.6% of Greens in Regulation — is real and a sign of him gearing up for Augusta, the posted line is probably fair. If these guys play like they have the past six months, JT should be a sizable favorite.