Rating 70+ Masters Matchup Props: JT Over Spieth and More
Action Network golf guru Colin Davy built a Masters-specific model that takes into account all the relevant metrics for a player: Overall strokes per round, adjusted for playing conditions and strength of field, plus player history at Augusta and weather conditions. That model powers our Masters Mega Guide, which you should definitely check out. And it’s also able to predict what an accurate matchup prop line should be.
Thankfully a ton of sites around the industry have provided us with loads of Masters props to bet. In this piece, I’m looking at more 70 matchup props from 5Dimes. Lines are current as of Tuesday evening.
I’m posting a table at the bottom of the piece with each listed prop from 5Dimes, Colin’s predicted line, and the difference between the two. But before that, let me go deeper on a few that really stand out per our data.
All lines via 5dimes as of Tuesday night.
Real line: Jordan Spieth (-120) vs. Justin Thomas (+100)
Model line: Jordan Spieth (+211) vs. Justin Thomas (-211)
Model pick: Justin Thomas +100
This first prop is probably quite surprising given Spieth’s utter domination at Augusta in his career — he’s finished 11th, second, first, and second in his four visits — and Thomas’ middling history (22nd and 39th in his two appearances). This will be the ultimate test of Jordan’s elite course history at Augusta, however, as these players have had very different past six months. JT has been the best golfer in the world and has three straight top-10s and is coming off a beautiful showing in Match Play two weeks ago. Spieth, on the other hand, had been having a somewhat disappointing season prior to a third-place finish last week at the Houston Open. If his ball-striking in that one — he hit 80.6% of Greens in Regulation — is real and a sign of him gearing up for Augusta, the posted line is probably fair. If these guys play like they have the past six months, JT should be a sizable favorite.
Real line: Bubba Watson (+115) vs. Jason Day (-135)
Model line: Bubba Watson (+227) vs. Jason Day (-227)
Model pick: Jason Day -135
There are several difficult players to evaluate in the field this week. Tiger is the obvious one — he’s been a different golfer over the past month compared to the past three years — but Bubba is just as hard to analyze. All signs indicate that Watson really struggled with his pink Volvik ball. His switch back to ProV1s has apparently turned him back into a top-five golfer and one that already has two green jackets. He dominated Match Play two weeks ago after winning the Genesis Open, and he has the ability to shape his balls perfectly around Augusta. So is the old Bubba back after the ball change? Or is he overvalued this week? Colin’s model is taking the longview.
Real line: Dustin Johnson (-105) vs. Justin Rose (-115)
Model line: Dustin Johnson (-190) vs. Justin Rose (+190)
Model pick: Dustin Johnson -105
Justin Rose is gaining a lot of steam this week, and for good reason: He’s in good form this year, and he’s finished second, 10th and second over his past three appearances at Augusta. Don’t get me wrong: Rose is a fantastic guy to bet on in a variety of ways this year — especially in DFS cash games, where he’s crazy cheap — but I think this prop is going overboard, and Colin’s data agrees. DJ is still the best player in the world, and, oh yeah, he’s finished fourth and sixth in his two most recent appearances at Augusta. I’m not sure why DJ is the dog here.
Real line: Russell Henley (-135) vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (+115)
Model line: Russell Henley (-215) vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat (+215)
Model pick: Russell Henley (-135)
Colin’s model is relatively high on Henley this week, and I can understand why. He’s finished 11th and 21st over his past two visits to Augusta, and he dominated at a Houston Open event last week that attempts to somewhat mimic Augusta. He finished eighth and had his irons on point, nailing a ridiculous 80.6% of his Greens in Regulation. He’s been excellent around the greens historically at Augusta, posting average Putts Per Round marks of 28.5, 28.0, and 27.3 in three visits since 2014. Aphibarnrat, on the other hand, hit just 52.8% of his greens at his most recent tournament (Arnold Palmer Invitational), which is not an encouraging sign.
Real line: Charl Schwartzel (+110) vs. Daniel Berger (-130)
Model line: Charl Schwartzel (+193) vs. Daniel Berger (-193)
Model pick: Daniel Berger (-130)
I think this pick is more about Colin’s model being bearish on Schwartzel than it is about being bullish on Berger. Charl is a former winner at Augusta (2011), and he finished third last year. That’s high-ceiling history, but he also has multiple missed cuts and is in very poor form entering the week. He’s missed the cut or finished 48th or worse in each of his past four tournaments, during which he’s really struggled off the tee and with his short irons. His 57.4% Recent GIR is one of the worst marks in the field. Berger has the distance and iron play to compete, but, honestly, it might not take a top-20 to beat Schwartzel in this matchup prop.
Real line: Danny Willett (+150) vs. Jhonattan Vegas (-170)
Model line: Danny Willett (+232) vs. Jhonattan Vegas (-232)
Model pick: Jhonattan Vegas (-170)
Again, this is Colin’s model being very bearish on a former Masters winner in Willett. It’s amazing he secured the green jacket in 2016, and it’s also amazing how far he’s dropped since then: His Long Term Adjusted Round Score of 72.0 is one of the worst marks in the field — it’s around the marks of Senior PGA players like Larry Mize and Mark O’Meara. Willett missed the cut last year defending his title, and he’s not in good form right now. He withdrew from his most recent event (Arnold Palmer Invitational) after hitting just 55.6% of his greens. He has only played six times since last October. Betting on someone to magically turn things around on a difficult course like Augusta doesn’t seem wise.
Real line: Patrick Cantlay (-135) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (+115)
Model line: Patrick Cantlay (-194) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (+194)
Model pick: Patrick Cantlay (-135)
Bryson is becoming a bit of a trendy bet and DFS play this week, and the reasoning is sound: Over his past two events, he’s absolutely crushed par 5s, posting an average scoring margin of -7 strokes. That’s great, but Cantlay is in another tier of golfers. The former World No. 1 Amateur seems to be back after having a rough couple of years personally, and he even got a PGA Tour win back in November. He’s been striking the hell out of the ball this season, and he has the distance and overall game to win the whole thing. Bryson is talented as well, but I’m afraid his metrics are being overinflated by one stellar showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Colin’s data seems to agree and likes the Cantlay side of this one.
There are a ton more exploitable props in the table below, so hop on that. Good luck!
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