Betting The Masters: Targeting a Pair of Longshots
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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When it comes to the real longshots in golf, Augusta National hasn’t been too kind. With every star teeing it up in an exclusive, elite field, true underdog stories don’t pop up very often.
Zach Johnson at 125-1 was the last winner of The Masters to tee off at a pre-tourney price of higher than 100-1. We also saw a lot of triple digit tickets cash when Danny Willett won two years ago, but his odds dropped to 66-1 at most places by the time he teed off.
In both occasions, it took some special circumstances to get a victory. For Willett, it came down to Jordan Spieth’s iconic collapse on No. 12. Meanwhile, Johnson emerged from some of the most difficult weather conditions in tournament history to get his win. Cold temperatures and high winds led to tough scoring in 2007, as Johnson matched the highest score ever shot by a Masters champion.
It’s tough to foresee when that next superstar implosion will occur. And with no extreme weather in the forecast, the underdogs might not be in great shape again this year. However, for everyone who wants to dig deep and try to
cash a lottery ticket at the Masters, I’ve got two guys to target.
Kevin Chappell 125-1
Chappell (pictured above) is a concern because a back injury forced him to withdraw during the third round of match play a little less than two weeks ago.
Not the @DellMatchPlay I was looking for. Played thru back pain in my second match (unsuccessfully). I tried to give it a go on Friday but really didn’t want to make things worse. I am trying to get healthy for @TheMasters.
— Kevin Chappell (@Kevin_Chappell) March 25, 2018
Before that injury, Chappell was checking a lot of the boxes necessary for success at The Masters. He ranked No. 3 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee prior to the Houston Open, trailing only Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm. Chappell has shown he can handle the driver as well as anyone on Tour, which is of utmost importance at Augusta.
His primary weakness resides with the putter, but we watched Sergio Garcia win last season in a year when he finished outside the top 150 on Tour in strokes gained: putting. You won’t find too many players who enter The Masters with an elite driver, a top-10 finish on the course and a triple-digit price. Chappell, who finished tied for seventh here last year, offers one of the best values on the board.
I’m personally going to wait it out and see if I can find a little more info on his back before making an official investment.
Pat Perez 150-1
Perez, 41, doesn’t have anything that jumps off the page statistically like Chappell does with the driver. He’s just a solid all-around player. He gains strokes in all three phases of the game (off the tee, approach and putting). One thing I do like about Perez is his relaxed attitude about the game. Perez, who has had multiple injuries throughout his career, is pretty much free-rolling in the golf world at this point. If it gets to the point where he’s actually contending late on Sunday, I believe he’d feel less pressure than his fellow competitors, primarily due to his laissez-faire attitude.
— THE NORTHERN TRUST (@TheNTGolf) January 12, 2018
I bet Perez at that number back in early February (Bovada). He did finish 18th here last year, so if you aren’t feeling a win, take a look at betting on a top 20 finish in the +500 or +600 range.