Arnold Palmer Invitational: Where to Find Value Among Big-Name Contenders

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Where to Find Value Among Big-Name Contenders article feature image

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Henrik Stenson

The leaders had a chance to pull away, but neither Henrik Stenson (pictured above) or Bryson DeChambeau could break 70 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Saturday.

As a result, we’ve got a jam-packed leaderboard yet again heading into the final round.

Stenson is still the favorite at +185 and holds a one-shot lead over Dechambeau (+650), but some big names are lurking close behind.

Rory McIlroy jumped into third place and is just two shots behind Stenson. McIlroy is closest to Stenson in the eyes of the linemakers and is available at +330.

Justin Rose also made a move and is now tied for fourth with Ryan Moore, three shots back. Rose is priced at +800. If that wasn’t enough, we nearly had Rickie Fowler in the mix as well. He briefly tied Stenson and DeChambeau for the lead, but a double bogey on 18 dropped him four shots back and down to +1200 in the odds.

Then we still have Tiger Woods, who is lurking five shots behind in a tie for 10th place. Woods is available at +1600 for anyone who thinks he has one of those magic Sundays in the works.


I’d look to Rose (+800) for value among the contenders. He’s been the hottest player on the planet for six months now. He’s won three times worldwide in that span and has been in contention basically every week. Just last week, he was in the final pairing on Sunday but couldn’t get the job done. I’d expect him to bounce back with a good round this time.


I’m going off the radar with my head-to-head play and will take Brian Stuard (+160) over Patrick Rodgers. This is really a fade of Rodgers, who has lost strokes everywhere except with the putter over his first three rounds. He heated up with the irons on Saturday, but is still losing ground for the week. He’s also ranked 177th on tour in strokes gained: approach this season, so that hot round appears to be more of an anomaly for him. Stuard hasn’t been doing anything amazing, but he’s played solid golf for three rounds and has gained strokes everywhere except with the driver. I think Stuard will hover around the field average with his score, but Rodgers may have a big number in him Sunday.

Top Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Odds per Bovada on March 17