The final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am went just as we all thought it would — sort of.
A player in the final group jumped out to a lead early and cruised to a relatively easy win.
The only thing is, we expected Dustin Johnson to claim an easy victory from that last pairing, not Ted Potter Jr.
But Potter Jr. bounced back from an opening bogey to play flawless golf, holding off Johnson, Jason Day and Phil Mickelson in the process.
Potter Jr. went into that final round as a +1000 underdog despite being tied for the lead; he was listed at +30000 prior to the tournament.
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen anything like this from Potter Jr. He was poised for a breakout about five years ago after two wins on the Web.com Tour in 2011 followed by a victory at the 2012 Greenbrier Classic. Since then, injuries have taken their toll.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 12, 2018
Key Betting Takeaway
This result falls in line with what we discussed last week. As good as the top players in the world are, they aren’t invincible. With Johnson, Day and Jon Rahm at the top of the betting odds on Sunday morning, it appeared inevitable that one of them would claim the title. But this ended up being another week where the world’s top players came up short..
Sometimes it’s hard to fire at the mid-tier or long shots when you have guys like Johnson, Day, Spieth and Rory McIlroy staring back at you. But if anything, we should welcome them, because they’re adding value to our other picks. Just remember to tack on a top-five or top-10 bet with those other players so you get some kind of return when one of the big guns does show up and takes down your value play.
Next week, the PGA Tour will visit Riviera Country Club in Southern California for the Genesis Open. The tournament concludes the West Coast swing. Johnson, Spieth, McIlroy, Justin Thomas and some guy named Tiger will headline a strong field. Overall, the tournament has a history of producing strong winners. Ten of the previous 28 have won the Masters, so it’s not a bad idea to look at Augusta success when examining the odds. It’s also not a bad idea to keep the winner here in mind two months from now when the first major of the year rolls around.
Top Photo: Ted Hopper Jr.
Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports