AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: How to Bet the Third Round

Dustin Johnson stormed through the Monterrey Peninsula course on Friday and appears to be in the right form to take home the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am title.

Johnson shot a round of 7-under par 64 to jump into a tie for the lead with Beau Hossler; Johnson's odds dropped from +350 to +135. Hossler checks in at +800, while Jason Day and Jon Rahm are the closest to Johnson at +700 and trail the leaders by three stokes.

We have two factors to consider before we figure out how to proceed with betting this event: the course and the wind. Johnson is heading to Pebble Beach on Saturday, which has been the hardest course over the first two rounds. Meanwhile, Hossler will be at Monterrey, the easiest of the three to this point.

But with wind expected to gust in the 20-25 MPH range on Saturday afternoon, the courses could play quite differently. As we've mentioned in previous posts this week, the trees at Spyglass tend to block out some of the wind, creating easier conditions than at the exposed coastline courses, Pebble Beach and Monterrey.

Either way, it appears Johnson has more of a disadvantage than he normally would with a share of the 36-hole lead. So, I'd avoid him and maybe look at someone like Rahm on Spyglass or Hossler at Monterrey if you want to back a favorite.

I'm going to rely on the wind and fire way down the board at some Spyglass players. I'll be adding Aaron Wise (+6600), Patrick Cantlay (+10000) and Tyrone Van Aswegan (+12500). Wise is three back, Van Aswegan sits four back, and Cantlay struggled on Pebble and is seven behind. Those will all be pretty small plays, because if the wind doesn't blow as hard as projected, then each will have a tough time climbing the leaderboard.

Top Photo: Dustin Johnson

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