After a couple of uneventful rounds in Las Vegas, we’ve got our best chance at a victory in the fall swing.
Beau Hossler shot the round of the day with a bogey-free 66 to vault into a tie for the lead with J.J. Spaun.
After Hossler closed his round, we caught a huge break when some massive wind gusts buffeted the course for the closing stretch. The final three groups didn’t make a birdie over the final three holes and played the closing stretch in a combined 19-over. During that time, Hossler went from two back with another half dozen guys within two shots of him to a tie at the top with a cushion on the rest of the field.
Hossler, who we tabbed in the long shot post at 200-1, sits as the slight favorite at +225, while Spaun checks in at +250. That duo has a three-shot cushion over the next closest competitor, Tony Finau, who checks in at +450. Patrick Cantlay leads a group of four who are four back at 11-1. Chesson Hadley and Gary Woodland are the only other golfers left at less than 25-1.
Having the co-leader at that big of a number after three rounds provides a few options going forward. That would lock in a small profit for the week and let us ride out the Hossler 40-1 top 5 play for another 10-unit return. We could also look at a hedge bet with the field, which will come in at around -300. That would require about a 30-unit play to push the week’s action should Hossler fall out of the top five and leave about a profit of 30 units should he win.
Beau Hossler closes with a birdie from deep on 18!
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 4, 2017
In these spots, the strategy relies a lot on the golfer, but I tend to just ride it out. I’m looking for the largest return possible, and Hossler is the type of prospect who could win 10 times in his career. He’s coming off a Sunday where he entered tied for third at the Sanderson Farms, and he played well but didn’t make any putts. I expect at least some of the nerves you’d expect to see from a young guy in this spot to be gone. I also don’t want to tie up that much money, especially on an NFL Sunday, so the hedge is out. With the top 5 in good shape and Charley Hoffman within two shots of another top 5 at +700, I’m standing pat, but those options are there for anyone who wants to lock in a win.
Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
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