Sobel, Sleeze and Davy: Our Favorite Byron Nelson Matchup Props
Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports
If you've heard the FantasyLabs Flex podcast, you know that the man (Sleeze) and the machine (Davy) battle it out with their golf takes. Colin Davy builds a model every week to analyze the best matchup props, whereas Drew Stoltz (aka Sleeze), a former golf pro, relies on his inside-the-ropes knowledge. Often they disagree, but sometimes they don't. And those times are where you'll want to pay attention: Last week's consensus — Chesson Hadley over Russell Henley — was an easy winner.
This piece will detail Sleeze's picks and Colin's data on those. Of course, we had to add our golf expert, Jason Sobel, into the mix as well. How do their picks align with Davy's model? And especially the two players they're both on? Take a look below …
Sleeze's Picks
Bill Haas (-115) over Harris English
Neither player comes into the Byron Nelson in good form, both coming off consecutive missed cuts. The minor length disadvantage Haas gives up off the tee (294 yards vs. 301) he more than makes up for with a huge putting advantage (ranked 18th vs. 140th). Another reason to like Haas here is because he is much less volatile than English. English has made fewer than 50% of his cuts this year (8 of 19), while Haas has made 8 of 13. Haas' advantage around the links-like greens at Trinity Forest makes him the pick in this matchup.
Davy's Model: Haas (-132) over English
The Verdict: Agree
Read more of Sleeze's picks below in the consensus section …
Sobel's Picks
Branden Grace (Even) over Hideki Matsuyama
I'm currently using all available fingers and toes to count the money I want to place on the noted strong links player against a guy who’s looked dazed and confused so far this year. Easily my favorite play of the week.
Davy's Model: Matsuyama (-103) over Grace
The Verdict: Disagree, although (non-juiced) odds are about in line with prop
Aaron Baddeley (-140) over Daniel Summerhays
Don’t be surprised if some of the Aussies in this week’s field fare especially well on this links course. That includes Badds, who has just one MC in his last eight starts. Summerhays hasn’t finished inside the top 50 at a PGA Tour event since August.
Davy's Model: Baddeley (-143) over Summerhays
The Verdict: Agree
Ryan Palmer (+105) over Grayson Murray
I couldn’t finish before picking an upset — although I’m a bit surprised at the odds here. Palmer is another Texan (more on another below) who has undoubtedly already gotten in a few reps at this new host venue – oh, and he just happened to turn around his game with a top-25 finish at The Players last week.
Davy's Model: Murray (-128) over Palmer
The Verdict: Disagree
Consensus Players to Buy
Both Sleeze and Sobel are buying Jimmy Walker and Marc Leishman in a couple props this week …
Jimmy Walker (+115) over Hideki Matsuyama
Sobel: The Great Hideki Fade of 2018 is real, my friends. OK, so now I’m just picking on the poor guy, but hey, it’s a sound strategy. Walker is finally healthy and playing much better. Being back in his home state of Texas is just an added bonus.
Jimmy Walker (-105) over Branden Grace
Sleeze: There are not many players on tour who play better in the state of Texas than Walker. In the past, he's been a very streaky player, but he seems to be finding his form of late. He has finished in the top 25 in each of his past four events and has two top 5s in that span, including a T2 last week at The Players. Grace is a very consistent player (zero missed cuts on tour this year) and has a good game for this golf course, but he doesn't have Walker's upside or his current form.
Davy's Model: Walker is a +132 dog to Matsuyama, +112 dog to Grace
The Verdict: Davy Model disagrees
Marc Leishman (-160) over Billy Horschel
Sobel: Did somebody say Aussie supremacy? Oh, that was me. Leishman is another guy who excels on links tracks, as his brand of low-flying laser beams off the tee should play well at Trinity.
Marc Leishman (-115) over Adam Scott
Sleeze: Scott has been mostly AWOL this year with zero top 10s in 11 events. His shaky putter does not give him much room for error anywhere else in his game, and his matchup against Leishman this week does not work in his favor. The links-style golf course will favor Leishman, who is one of the best links players in the world — he's been top six in three of the last four British Opens — and has five top 10s in 13 starts this year. Leishman continues to be one of the most underrated players on tour and should be a significant favorite in this matchup.
Davy's Model: Leishman is a -163 favorite over Horschel, -158 over Scott
The Verdict: Davy Model agrees, best value is over Scott
Odds via sportsbook.ag
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